Flash Flood Warning 399, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
311 AM CST MON NOV 22 2004

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING IN THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT NEAR
GGG-ACT-SJT LINE AND LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR INLAND ALONG THE
COAST. STORMS ARE FORMING DUE TO LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC WARMING AND
STRONG LIFT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM CA.

FF WATCH CONTINUES FOR HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG-EAST OF IH35 CORRIDOR.
THERE IS PLENTY OF FUEL TO WORK WITH...PWAT VALUES ARE HIGH...1.3
WEST TO 1.7 EAST. SFC RIDGE IN OK WILL ANCHOR COLD FRONT IN PLACE
TODAY...PERHAPS EVEN SHOVE IT A FEW MILES SWD. ISENTROPIC LIFTING
WILL PERSIST...WINDS AT/ABOVE 925MB ARE SLY AND WILL REMAIN SO.
ALSO...DUE TO COLD TEMPS ALOFT TODAY...H5 VALUES -13 WEST...LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEP AND CAPES BY AFTN WILL BE IN 1500 RANGE. MENTIONED
BOTH HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THRU THIS EVENING.

EVENT SO FAR BEST HANDLED BY GFS. ETA AGAIN TOO DRY IN SC TX AND
SEVERLY UNDERESTIMATING RAINFALL. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES
INTO TUE. SFC LOW WILL FORM BY EARLY TUE IN WRN TX AND BEGIN TO
DRAG A DRY LINE ACROSS SC TX IN THE AFTN. THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN
SOME SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL.

END OF THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE TUE EVENING...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO SC TX EARLY WED MORNING.  LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
AND 40S BY THU MORNING. APPEARS AT THIS TIME WE WILL BE GETTING A
BREAK ON THE RAIN...AT LEAST INTO THE HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  62  70  50 /  90  80  70   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  62  70  48 /  90  80  70   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  60  72  46 /  50  50  30   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  65  70  48 /  90  70  60   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FFA THRU 4 PM THIS AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME TO PEARSALL
LINE.

&&

09/04

TXZ171>173-188-190>194-205>209-221>225-220700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1214 AM CST MON NOV 22 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT TIL 245 AM FOR COMAL...HAYS...
TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...

...AN URBAN SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR BEXAR COUNTY TIL 2 AM...

...A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 400 PM
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS BEGINNING TO COLLIDE WITH A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY GULF FLOW. THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WATCH AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SATURATED SOILS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MAY LEAD TO RAPID
RUNOFF WITH ADDITIONAL FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

TXZ171>173-188-190>194-205>209-221>225-220830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
125 AM CST MON NOV 22 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 AM FOR
COMAL...HAYS...TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM FOR
ATASCOSA...BEXAR...FRIO...KENDALL AND MEDINA COUNTIES...

...A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 400 PM
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...

EARLY THIS MORNING...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO GENERALLY ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS IS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WAS APPROACHING SOUTHERN TEXAS WHILE
INTERACTING WITH A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY GULF FLOW. THE THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATCH AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. SATURATED SOILS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF WITH ADDITIONAL FLOODING POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 AM CST MON NOV 22 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 AM     FLOOD            AUSTIN                  30.31N 97.75W
11/22/2004                   TRAVIS             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED IN AND AROUND THE CITY OF AUSTIN
            DUE TO WATER OVER THE ROADS.

&&

PM