Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2004

Flash Flood Warning 227, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

June 30, 2004Guadalupe County, Texas

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued this flash flood warning at Jun 30, 2004, 4:13 AM CDT for Guadalupe County, Texas. It was in force for 4 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 30, 2004, 4:13 AM CDT (09:13 UTC)
Expired: Jun 30, 2004, 8:15 AM CDT
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Guadalupe County, TX

The radar

The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 12 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 00:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 218 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1394 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -16 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 944 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 58 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 75 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS54 KEWX 300913
FFWSAT
TXC187-301315-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
413 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
  GUADALUPE

* UNTIL 815 AM CDT

* AT 407 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM NEAR GERONIMO...OR ABOUT OVER
  SEGUIN...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ZORN...NEW BERLIN...
  MCQUEENEY...MARION AND KINGSBURY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLASH FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY
IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS
IMMINENT. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS
THE ROADWAY. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL
ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR
CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS SHOULD AVOID
CAMPING ALONG STREAMS OR CREEKS DURING THREATENING RAINS.

LAT...LON 2961 9825 2941 9810 2941 9785 2964 9769
          2982 9790 2968 9804

$$

1 follow-up statement

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 301235
FFSSAT
TXC187-301315-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
733 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 815 AM CDT FOR GUADALUPE
COUNTY...

AT 730 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE SHOWERS PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF ONE QUARTER INCH. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SEGUIN...NEW BERLIN...MCQUEENEY...MARION...KINGSBURY AND GERONIMO.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF 
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. 
ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF 
CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER
GROUND.

LAT...LON 2961 9825 2941 9810 2941 9785 2964 9769
          2982 9790 2968 9804

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jun 30, 3:42 AM CDT, 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 30, 3:42 AM CDT, 31 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
342 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THE BAD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL REMAIN WET...VERY WET...FOR THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS. HIGH POPS (80-100) CENTRAL AND EAST TODAY...DECREASING
TO 30 OUT WEST IN VAL VERDE COUNTY. RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OUT
WEST TODAY...WITH ONGOING RAIN POSSIBLY LEADING TO MAJOR FLOODING ON
THE SABINAL AND FRIO RIVERS. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT AS WELL...UNFORTUNATELY CONCENTRATING OVER THE AUSTIN-SAN
ANTONIO INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS THAT WILL LEAVE SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS HOT AND DRY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND. AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND BECOME CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
MEXICO. THE STORM TRACK WILL THEN SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO MINIMAL POPS (10-20) FOR SOME OF OUR NE COUNTIES
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO COVER POSSIBLE MCS EVOLUTION AND
TRACK FROM NORTH TEXAS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE...WILL GO POPLESS
GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION OVER WEAKER RIDGE
GFS SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              85  75  92  76 /  90  40  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  72  93  73 /  90  40  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  75  96  75 /  30  10  10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  75  92  75 / 100  30  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THRU 4 PM.

&&

11/03/JB

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 29, 6:00 AM CDT, 22 hours 13 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-301100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
600 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL
COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE
FLOODING WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
THURSDAY LEADING TO LOWER CHANCES OF RAINS FRIDAY INTO THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 29, 8:23 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Atascosa, Bastrop, Caldwell, Comal, Frio, Guadalupe and 8 more	112 min
Jun 29, 11:37 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Medina, Uvalde	3 hr
Jun 30, 12:38 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Bandera, Kerr	4 hr
Jun 30, 2:24 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Medina, Uvalde	4 hr
Jun 30, 3:24 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Medina, Uvalde	6 hr
Jun 30, 3:46 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Comal, Hays	4 hr
Jun 30, 4:40 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Bandera	4 hr
Jun 30, 4:50 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Travis, Williamson	4 hr
Jun 30, 4:54 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Zavala	4 hr
Jun 30, 6:30 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Medina, Uvalde	4 hr
Jun 30, 7:00 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Frio	4 hr
Jun 30, 7:43 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Caldwell, Comal, Hays	4 hr
Jun 30, 8:25 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Atascosa, Bexar	3 hr
Jun 30, 8:39 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Bastrop, Caldwell, DeWitt, Fayette, Gonzales, Karnes and 2 more	4 hr
Jun 30, 9:06 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Guadalupe, Wilson	2 hr
Jun 30, 12:50 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	DeWitt, Fayette, Karnes, Lavaca	3 hr
Jun 30, 1:36 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Gonzales	2 hr
Jun 30, 3:04 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, Guadalupe, Hays, Wilson	3 hr
Jun 30, 3:14 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Bastrop, Caldwell, DeWitt, Fayette, Gonzales, Guadalupe and 6 more	3 hr
Jun 30, 3:36 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Atascosa	2 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2004 Every flash flood warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.