Flash Flood Warning 226, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 301217
FFSSAT
TXC091-209-301245-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
715 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 745 AM CDT FOR COMAL AND
HAYS COUNTIES...

AT 713 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES ON ONE QUARTER INCH PER HOUR...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.     

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING WILL CAUSE 
CONTINUED FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND 
UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE 
BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO 
FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO 
CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER 
TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO 
ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 2981 9855 2974 9836 2964 9829 2979 9803
          3002 9778 3032 9816 3002 9827

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
342 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THE BAD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL REMAIN WET...VERY WET...FOR THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS. HIGH POPS (80-100) CENTRAL AND EAST TODAY...DECREASING
TO 30 OUT WEST IN VAL VERDE COUNTY. RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OUT
WEST TODAY...WITH ONGOING RAIN POSSIBLY LEADING TO MAJOR FLOODING ON
THE SABINAL AND FRIO RIVERS. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT AS WELL...UNFORTUNATELY CONCENTRATING OVER THE AUSTIN-SAN
ANTONIO INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS THAT WILL LEAVE SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS HOT AND DRY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND. AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND BECOME CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
MEXICO. THE STORM TRACK WILL THEN SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO MINIMAL POPS (10-20) FOR SOME OF OUR NE COUNTIES
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO COVER POSSIBLE MCS EVOLUTION AND
TRACK FROM NORTH TEXAS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE...WILL GO POPLESS
GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION OVER WEAKER RIDGE
GFS SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              85  75  92  76 /  90  40  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  72  93  73 /  90  40  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  75  96  75 /  30  10  10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  75  92  75 / 100  30  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THRU 4 PM.

&&

11/03/JB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-301100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
600 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL
COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE
FLOODING WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
THURSDAY LEADING TO LOWER CHANCES OF RAINS FRIDAY INTO THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.