Flash Flood Warning 115, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
955 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2004

.UPDATE...
SHORT-WAVE CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE WITH DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS THE EWX CWA PROMPTING NUMEROUS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT. PWS BETWEEN 1.9
AND 2.3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA AMPLE LIFT AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE. ONLY
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
EARLY TO MID JUNE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKING PATTERN CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RECENT
RAINS AND MORE RAINS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BODE WELL TO
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT TO 4 PM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. EARLIER IN THE SPRING THE WESTERLIES CAME SOUTH FAR
ENOUGH...ALONG WITH FRONTS...TO SET OFF A SERIES OF RAIN EVENTS. IN
MID MAY AS THIS STORM TRACK RETREATED NORTH...SO DID THE RAIN EVENTS
ALSO...AS THEY DECREASED. JUNE 2004 HAS RETURNED THE RAINS...AS THE
WESTERLIES HAVE COME BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND LINKED WITH TROPICAL/SUB
TROPICAL WX SYSTEMS ALOFT TO THE S AND SW OF THE AREA. RAINFALL SO
FAR AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS CLOSE TO THE 10TH
WETTEST JUNE OF RECORD...5.19 INCHES IN JUNE OF 1951. THE 10TH
WETTEST JUNES AT OTHER LOCATIONS INCLUDES AUSTIN MABRY 8.21
INCHES...SAN ANTONIO 7.87 INCHES AND DEL RIO 5.13 INCHES.

AT ANY RATE PROGRESSIVE TROF MOVING OVER THE WESTERN U.S...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE WESTERN GREAT PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS SOME LIFT FROM ANY
POSSIBLE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM COMING ACROSS AREA ALOFT LINGERS.
COMPOSITE AVERAGE OF AREA POPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. SLIGHT INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING MAY CAUSE ISOLATED TO WDLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF SHOW MAIN STORM TRACK GOING
NORTH...WITH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WEAKNESS
IN HEIGHT FIELD EVOLVES AS S/W TROF TO NORTH MOVES NORTHEAST...
THEREFORE WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPS
FROM THE WEST...THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHRA IN FORECAST FOR
THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 09/21Z...TXZ171>173-185>194-203>209-
218>225-228.

&&

04/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1100 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-091100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
1100 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...INCLUDING THE CITIES
OF AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO.  TROPICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BRING 1 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD START TO
MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.