Alert archive / Iowa / Flash Flood Warnings in 2004

Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Quad Cities, IA

May 30, 2004Jefferson County, Keokuk County, Washington County, Iowa

NWS Quad Cities, IA issued this flash flood warning at May 30, 2004, 3:09 PM CDT for Jefferson County, Keokuk County, Washington County, Iowa. It was in force for 5 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 30, 2004, 3:09 PM CDT (20:09 UTC)
Expired: May 30, 2004, 8:00 PM CDT
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: NWS Quad Cities, IA
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Jefferson County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Washington County, IA

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 126 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 311 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1629 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -53 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 569 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 201 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 177 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.4
Supercell composite: 8.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS53 KDVN 302011
FFWDVN
IAC101-107-183-310100-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
309 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA
  KEOKUK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA
  JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 307 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS KEOKUK...WASHINGTON...AND JEFFERSON 
  COUNTIES.  THIS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OVER ALREADY SATURATED 
  GROUND WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING. 

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WHAT
  CHEER...WELLMAN...WASHINGTON...SOUTH ENGLISH...SIGOURNEY...
  RIVERSIDE...RICHMOND...RICHLAND...PLEASANT PLAIN...PACKWOOD...
  LOCKRIDGE...LIBERTYVILLE...KINROSS...KESWICK...KALONA...HARPER...
  FAIRFIELD...DELTA...CRAWFORDSVILLE...BRIGHTON...AINSWORTH AND
  ABINGDON.

DO NOT DRIVE ON FLOODED ROADS. MOST FATALITIES OCCUR IN VEHICLES 
SWEPT AWAY IN FLOOD WATERS AS SHALLOW AS 1 FOOT.  TURN AROUND AND 
FIND ANOTHER ROUTE

FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...HIGHWAYS AND STREETS... 
UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING URBAN AND RURAL AREAS IS LIKELY.

IF YOU ARE CAMPING NEAR A STREAM...CREEK OR OTHER LOW-LYING AREA...
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 4149 9240 4119 9240 4119 9217 4093 9218
          4091 9174 4117 9173 4119 9152 4149 9154

$$

33

1 follow-up statement

000 
WGUS73 KDVN 302339
FFSDVN
IAC101-107-183-310000-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
640 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS CANCELLED THE 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR  WASHINGTON...KEOKUK...AND JEFFERSON 
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST IOWA.

RAINFALL HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF THE AREA...AND LOCAL OFFICIALS 
REPORT THAT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED.  THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4149 9240 4119 9240 4119 9217 4093 9218
          4091 9174 4117 9173 4119 9152 4149 9154

$$

33

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 30, 4:58 AM CDT, 10 hours 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 30, 4:58 AM CDT, 10 hours 11 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
458 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA.
SEVERE WEATHER ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
MOST LIKELY AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF AN OTTUMWA...QUAD CITIES...TO LA
SALLE PERU LINE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY HAIL/HIGH WINDS BUT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY
ALLOW ISOLATED TORNADOES TO DEVELOP. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT QUIETER
WX TO SETTLE OVER THE CWFA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
SO WILL KEEP CURRENT FLOOD WATCH GOING.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LOW TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. VORT MAXES RIPPLING ALONG IN THE FLOW TO
PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA WITH SOME TSRA POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
QUIET WX THEN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. MODELS DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON DEVELOPMENT OF NEXT SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND BUT STRONG WAA RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO
BREAK OUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHRA TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON.
IA...IAZ040>042-051>054
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

08

Hazardous weather outlook, May 30, 5:20 AM CDT, 9 hours 49 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
520 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-311000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
520 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
EAST CENTRAL IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH OVER 2 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO SATURATED
SOILS...RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD RAPIDLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS
AND RIVERS AND CAUSE RENEWED FLOODING.

SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR IS PRESENT TO ALLOW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE AREA MOST AT RISK
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM OTTUMWA...TO THE QUAD
CITIES...TO PERU ILLINOIS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

ALTHOUGH LESS CERTAIN...ANOTHER AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. WIND SHEAR IN THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF THIS OCCURS...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

IF SEVERE WEATHER DOES OCCUR...THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD WOULD BE
FROM 3 PM UNTIL 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

08

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 30, 2:13 PM CDT, 56 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
213 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             FREEPORT                42.29N 89.63W
05/30/2004  0.25 INCH        STEPHENSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5 MINUTES OF PEA SIZE HAIL BETWEEN 205 AND 210 PM.

&&

14

Local storm report, May 30, 2:21 PM CDT, 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
221 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             MEMPHIS                 40.46N 92.17W
05/30/2004  0.75 INCH        SCOTLAND           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DMD

Local storm report, May 30, 2:39 PM CDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
239 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     HAIL             MONTROSE                40.53N 91.42W
05/30/2004  1.00 INCH        LEE                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DMD

Local storm report, May 30, 2:40 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
240 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 W NAUVOO              40.55N 91.42W
05/30/2004                   LEE                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0230 PM     HAIL             ARGYLE                  40.53N 91.57W
05/30/2004  1.75 INCH        LEE                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0228 PM     TSTM WND GST     DONNELLSON              40.64N 91.56W
05/30/2004  50 MPH           LEE                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

14

Local storm report, May 30, 2:41 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT ... CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
241 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     TSTM WND GST     DONNELLSON              40.64N 91.56W
05/30/2004  60 MPH           LEE                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

14

Local storm report, May 30, 2:47 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
247 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND GST     NAUVOO                  40.55N 91.38W
05/30/2004  80 MPH           HANCOCK            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

14

The office that day

Everything else NWS Quad Cities, IA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 30, 5:22 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DVN	Jefferson	6 hr
May 30, 7:53 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DVN	Scott	6 hr
May 30, 2:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Lee	42 min
May 30, 2:29 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Lee	46 min
May 30, 2:45 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Des Moines	45 min
May 30, 2:47 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DVN	Lee	5 hr
May 30, 3:26 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Benton, Buchanan, Linn	64 min
May 30, 3:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Johnson, Washington	58 min
May 30, 3:41 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Dubuque, Jones	49 min
May 30, 3:52 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Iowa, Johnson	53 min
May 30, 3:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Delaware	62 min
May 30, 4:03 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Cedar, Muscatine	42 min
May 30, 4:12 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DVN	Buchanan, Delaware, Dubuque, Jones, Linn	63 min
May 30, 4:18 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Dubuque	57 min
May 30, 4:25 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DVN	Buchanan, Delaware, Dubuque, Jones, Linn	4 hr
May 30, 4:44 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Cedar, Scott	46 min
May 30, 5:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Delaware	28 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Iowa, 2004 Every flash flood warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.