Severe Thunderstorm Warning 403, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
253 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2004

.SHORT TERM...TNGT THRU SUN
MAIN FOCUS OBVIOUSLY TSTM TRENDS TNGT IN TERMS OF SVR AND HVY RAIN.
SITUATION LOOKS QUITE VOLATILE IN TERMS OF ENERGY AND SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH NO SGFNT SHRT WV OR KICKER NOTED UPSTREAM IN WV
IMAGERY...STG 100+ KT JET APCHG SIOUXLAND AREA WHICH WL ENHANCE
SHEAR AND EVENTUALLY BRING RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN INTO PLAY OVNGT.  19Z
SFC ANLYS SHOWS IMPRESSIVE LOW LVL THETA-E RDG INTO HEART OF FA WITH
FNTL BNDRY STRETCHING ACRS NWRN AND NRN IA.  WRMFNT ALSO NOTED TIED
INTO SUBTLE TRIPLE POINT FM INVOF KMCW SEWD INTO SWRN IL.  CU AREA
DVLPG ALG KDNS-KFOD-KFKA LN LOOKS TO BE INITIATION AREA NR FNT.
MLCAPES ALREADY 2000-3500 J/KG ACRS FA.  MLCINS STILL AOA 50 HWVR SO
THOSE MLCAPES WL LIKELY GROW EVEN LRGR BEFORE CAP BREAKS IN A FEW
HRS.  0-6KM SHEAR AOA 45 KTS SO XPC RAPID SUPERCELL DVLPMT ONCE
STORMS GO.  SHALLOW SHEAR STG AND ORIENTED FAVORABLY TOO SO ALL
MODES OF CONVECTION AND SVR WX POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH TORNADO THREAT MAY
NOT BE THE GREATEST UNLESS WE CAN GET THE NOSE OF 0-3KM CAPES AND
LOWER LFCS OVR MO FARTHER NWD.  EVENT WL LIKELY GO INTO SGFNT MCS
TNGT WITH CURRENT 4000-6000 MUCAPES FEED FED BY STG LOW LVL JET INTO
BNDRY...SPCLLY ERN PTNS.  HVY RAIN LIKELY AFT SVR THREAT EVOLVES AS
FNTL MOVMT QUITE SLOW WITH STG LOW LVL MSTR TRANSPORT INTO BNDRY
WITH DEEP WARM CLD LYR.  MEAN LYR WND NRLY PARALLEL TO FNT WITH
CORFIDI VECTORS WEAK SLY...SO WL COULD SEE TRAINING JUST AHD OF
BNDRY FOR EXTENDED PD.  THUS WL MENTION BOTH SVR AND HVY RAIN
WORDING IN ZNS.

QUESTION BY TMRW TURNS TO HOW MUCH POST FNTL PCPN WE WILL SEE.  MDLS
NOW FASTER PUSHING SYS AWAY SO THREAT WL NOT LINGER AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUSLY XPCD.  ETA NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF MID LVL QG FORCING LIKE
PAST GFS RUNS...MAINLY FRONTOGENETICAL...SO WL GO WITH POPS AND EVEN
LIKELY WORDING FRI DMSHG TO CHCS SERN PTNS FRI OVNGT.  RMNDR OF FCST
DRY BUT THETA-E ADVCTN QUITE STG SUN AFTN AND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GFS MOS NUMBERS TOO WRM FRI WITH
CLDS AND POSSIBLE PCPN SO STAYED CLOSER TO ETA.  SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
COOLER ETA MOS NUMBERS SAT AS WELL.  STAYED AT OR JUST BLO
COMPROMISE FOR MINS CONSIDERING PAST PERFORMANCE IN RECENT COOL PDS.

.LONG TERM...SUN NGT THRU THU
OUTSIDE OF CANADIAN...MOST MDLS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
IA WX THRU PD WHICH LOOKS DRY WITH AT OR JUST ABV NML TEMPS.  UPR
LVL RDG BUILDS INTO...AND THEN TRAVERSES CNTRL CONUS TWRD ERN U.S.
BY THU.  NIL FORCING OR BNDRYS INVOF.  TEMPS ONLY QUESTION.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD LOW SO HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE IN GUIDANCE...BUT WL
LEAN TWRD HIGHER END WED AND THU WHEN RTRN FLOW LOOKS STGR.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

SMALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2004

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>073-271100-
ADAIR-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-
CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MADISON-MARSHALL-
PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT-
335 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL IOWA NORTH OF HIGHWAY
34 TO THE MINNESOTA LINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN.  THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FOR TORNADOES AS WELL.  THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH
A FEW OF THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING.

IAZ074-075-081>086-092>097-271100-
ADAMS-APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WAYNE-
335 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL IOWA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
34 TO THE MISSOURI STATE LINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI IS LIFTING NORTH.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BUT ANY SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR EAST OF CENTRAL IOWA.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATE THIS
EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL.  TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.  THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS BETWEEN 8 PM
AND 2 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  A COUPLE
STORMS FRIDAY EVENING MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY
EVENING.

FAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
416 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     HAIL             KANAWHA                 42.93N 93.79W
08/26/2004  0.75 INCH        HANCOCK            IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

0410 PM     HAIL             HARDY                   42.81N 94.05W
08/26/2004  0.75 INCH        HUMBOLDT           IA   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

ST