Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
945 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

.UPDATE...MODELS ARE OF LITTLE USE IT SEEMS REGARDING THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF PRECIP AS EACH ONE IS OFFERING A DIFFERENT SOLUTION.
WILL BASE UPDATE DECISIONS ON WATER VAPOR LOOP AND REGIONAL UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS.  APPEARS THAT ONE SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED THROUGH THE CWA
AND IS NOW OFFSHORE WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION IS LOCATED.  THIS HAS
PLACED THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT WITH WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATING SOME FURTHER DRYING ALOFT AND CU DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE THE
WINDOW APPEARS SUPPRESSED.  850 FLOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN TODAY SO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS LOW AND WILL CONT TO OMIT FLOOD
WATCH...BUT KEEP HEAVY RAINFALL IN ZONES DUE TO SLOW CELL MOVEMENT.

12Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATES SOME DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IN. WITH SWLY
FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE AND AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE
MAX TEMPS A CATEGORY ACROSS THE BOARD.  APPEARS NEXT SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH COAHUILA AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION SW OF
DEL RIO.  THIS SPOKE OF ENERGY SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND PVA WILL ENHANCE SEABREEZE INITIATED CONVECTION
EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA.

UPDATED THE ZONES TO WORD CONVECTION AS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY TO PLACE MOST OF THE CWA IN THE SCATTERED
POP CRITERIA...WITH JUST THE NE CWA IN LIKELY.  WITH SOME DRYING
ALOFT AND INCREASED CAPE AS A RESULT OF EXPECTED TEMPS 90-95 WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S WILL ALSO UPDATE HWO TO MENTION SOME
SEVERE.  BELIEVE THAT PULSE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION IN THE ZONES ATTM.

&&

TR/92

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1000 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-252300-
ARANSAS-BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-BEE-CALHOUN-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LASALLE-LIVE OAK-MCMULLEN-NUECES-
REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-WEBB-
1000 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.  DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ISOLATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING MUCH LESS.  ALSO...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH DIME
SIZED HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
223 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

TXZ229>234-239>246-252010-
ARANSAS-BEE-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE
OAK-MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
240 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE COASTAL
BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AT 235 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND FROM PORT OCONNOR TO
KINGSVILLE WITH ADDITION SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FILLING IN ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND AND AND ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...WINDS
GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 MPH...CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAIN
WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES AN HOUR. SOME STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN AREAS HARDEST
HIT BY THESE VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS. IN ADDITION SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 37 WEST TO
INTERSTATE 35. SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS REGARDING THESE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.

MJG