Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
238 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...LINGERING EFFECTS OF A
500HPA CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS INTERACTING WITH MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES IN
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EARLY THIS EVENING. A 500HPA CYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER THE BIG
BEND OF TEXAS WILL THEN DRIFT INTO THE CWA AND POTENTIALLY BECOME
CLOSED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 500HPA VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE AND PERSISTENTLY STRONG 250HPA
DIFFLUENCE WILL AID IN ASCENSION. AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND IMPACT THE CWA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. FORCING FROM THESE FEATURES IN AN UNSTABLE/TROPICALLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS MOSTLY CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT THEN MOSTLY
LIKELY POPS FRIDAY. A RECOVERY PERIOD WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMETIME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO A PORTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT THEN ADDITIONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES ARGUES FOR
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE A FURTHER
ASSESSMENT AS TO WHETHER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED
REGARDING THE MCS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVIATIONS FROM GUIDANCE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BUT SHADED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG-TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A MID/UPR LVL SHEAR/TROUGH
AXIS WL REMAIN EITHER ACROSS THE CWA OR JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY.  SEVERAL VORT MAXES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SHEAR/TROUGH
AXIS WL AFFECT THE CWA THROUGH EARY NEXT WEEK.  THE SHEAR/TROUGH
AXIS WL BE AT ITS MOST INTENSE ON SATURDAY AS S/WV ENERGY DROPS SEWD
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  THIS ALONG WITH AN UNCAPPED VERY
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE AND DECENT LOW LVL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ASSCTD WITH A LOW LVL SFC TROUGH AND THE SEABREEZE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRAS/TSRAS WL BE THE RESULT ON SAT WITH A LTL
BIT LESS COVERAGE ON SUN.  THE MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER
SUN WITH THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THIS SHEAR AXIS.  THE ECMWF...
NOGAPS AND CANADIAN SOLNS TRY TO BUILD MORE RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE EAST.  THE GFS IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLNS IN HOLDING ONTO A GENERAL WEAKNESS OR WK SHEAR AXIS JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.  PAST EXPERIENCE
INDICATES THAT THE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST IN DRYING US OUT.
MY INCLINATION IS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST CHC POPS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TIMING OF PCPN THROUGHOUT THIS FCST PD WL BE MAINLY DICTATED BY
VARIOUS VORTICITY CENTERS AND DIURNAL HEATING.  HEAVY RAINFALL WL
ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND SO A FLOOD WATCH WL LKLY BE
NECESSARY.  RIVER FLOODING WL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY
WITH ALL OF OUR RESERVOIRS AT 100 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AND MANY AREAS
SATURATED OR NEARLY SATURATED.  HIGH TEMPS WL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD
CVR.  LOWS WL INITIALLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RAIN-COOLED AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.  HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WL
GRADUALLY WARM TO MORE SEASONAL LVLS AS S/SE BOUNDARY LYR FLOW
INCREASES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI   75 87 75 85 74 88 / 30 60 50 60 40 50
VICTORIA         70 86 73 84 72 86 / 40 60 50 70 40 60
LAREDO           75 90 75 91 75 94 / 30 70 50 50 40 40
ALICE            74 89 74 87 73 90 / 30 60 50 60 40 50
ROCKPORT         77 86 78 84 75 86 / 30 60 50 70 40 60
COTULLA          69 90 73 88 73 91 / 50 80 50 60 40 50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

85/SHORT-TERM
80/MB/LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1206 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-250000-
ARANSAS-BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-BEE-CALHOUN-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LASALLE-LIVE OAK-MCMULLEN-NUECES-
REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-WEBB-
1206 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP
ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 1
INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM COTULLA TO GEORGE WEST TO VICTORIA AND
POINTS NORTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH
COPIOUS MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE FOREGOING UPPER LOW DISSIPATES AND
IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AN INCREASE IN MAXIMUM SURFACE TEMPERATURE
WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE MOISTURE TO RESULT IN HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

85/91/87

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
450 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

TXZ243-244-242230-
NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-
450 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

...A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS SPOTTED OVER CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...

AT 445 PM CDT...LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD OVER
CORPUS CHRISTI BAY NEAR THE HARBOR BRIDGE.  THIS THUNDERSTORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS BUT THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
SEEK SHELTER IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT THE FUNNEL CLOUD REACHES THE
GROUND.

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

94/MJ