Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
920 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

.UPDATE...CONCERN OF THE VERY SHORT-TERM (NEXT 1-2 HOURS) IS
CONVECTION CONTINUING ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN
HIGHER AREA OF INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES. ALSO BEING
AIDED BY SHORTWAVE ANALYZED BY RUC OVER RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OCCURRING WITH CLUSTER OVER JIM
WELLS COUNTY. THIS STORM HAS ALSO PULSED UP AT TIMES AND PRODUCED
SMALL HAIL. SO FOCUS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE ACROSS JIM
WELLS...DUVAL AND WESTERN KLEBERG.

AS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION MENTIONED...H5 CYCLONE ACROSS NM AND FAR
WEST TX WILL DRIFT SE THRU TONIGHT AND INTO FRI. INCREASING H25
DIFFLUENCE FRI ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL COMBINE
WITH A CONTINUED MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION FIRING
OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN POSSIBLY FORMING INTO MCS OVERNIGHT AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST. BUT LOW LEVEL INFLOW APPEARS TOO WEAK AND STORMS
UP THAT WAY SHOULD BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED AND WEAKEN. AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN. BUT DO EXPECT
STORMS TO INITIATE DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE CWA SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH POPS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR TOMORROW AND WILL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO ASSESS 0Z MODEL
DATA AND TRENDS BEFORE MAKING FINAL CALL.

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

76

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1206 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-250000-
ARANSAS-BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-BEE-CALHOUN-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LASALLE-LIVE OAK-MCMULLEN-NUECES-
REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-WEBB-
1206 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP
ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 1
INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM COTULLA TO GEORGE WEST TO VICTORIA AND
POINTS NORTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH
COPIOUS MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE FOREGOING UPPER LOW DISSIPATES AND
IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AN INCREASE IN MAXIMUM SURFACE TEMPERATURE
WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE MOISTURE TO RESULT IN HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

85/91/87

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
450 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

TXZ243-244-242230-
NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-
450 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

...A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS SPOTTED OVER CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...

AT 445 PM CDT...LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD OVER
CORPUS CHRISTI BAY NEAR THE HARBOR BRIDGE.  THIS THUNDERSTORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS BUT THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
SEEK SHELTER IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT THE FUNNEL CLOUD REACHES THE
GROUND.

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

94/MJ