Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
249 AM CDT SUN APR 11 2004

.SHORT-TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...COMBINATION COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION CAUSING GUSTY N-NE WINDS
GUSTING TO 30-45 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR SHOWS
STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS OVER THE WATERS AND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS NEAR THE
COLD FRONT WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH ACROSS S/CEN TEXAS
AND NEW CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NERN MEX ASSOC W/ THE
NEXT S/WV. BELIEVE THE ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS OCCURRING
NEAR THE H85 FRONT WHICH IS LAGGING WELL BEHIND DUE TO THE GENTLY
SLOPED FRONTAL SFC. SO...THE H85 FRONT WILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY-TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE (SEEN
NICELY ON WV IMAGERY S-SE OF ELP) MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MID
DAY. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DIFFER QUICKLY IN THE SHORT TERM WRT THE
H85 FRONT MAINLY DUE TO HOW THEY HANDLE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SERN
STATES TODAY. BASICALLY...THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH DEEPER SFC-H85 LOW
ACROSS THE FL PAN HANDLE BY 00Z WHILE THE ETA/NGM SHOW A
WEAKER...LESS ORGANIZED ELONGATED LOW A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. LOOKING
AT THE GFS UVM...UPR DIVERGENCE...AND H25 STREAMLINES IT APPEARS THE
GFS MAY BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE NE GOMEX
CAUSING IT TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW TO MUCH AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
ETA SOLN WRT LOW LEVEL FEATURES THIS RUN. THAT BEING SAID...LIKE THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE H85 FRONT PLACING IT NEAR THE REGION THROUGH
THIS AFTN PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED S/WV MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COULD STILL SEE SOME
ISOLD STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS GIVEN THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND STILL
HIGH H85 COMP LIS...WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT MAINLY IN
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRES AT 6 AM
AND CONSIDERING THE TRAINING CELLS CURRENTLY ON RADAR...MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER CONTINUING THROUGH TODAY...BUT WILL MAKE FINAL
DETERMINATION LATER THIS MORNING.

A STRONG 145KT+ JET CORE WILL WRAP AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE CWA IN AN AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
ALONG THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET STREAK PUNCHING INTO NERN MEX
(AS WELL AS CONTINUED PVA). AGAIN LEANING TOWARDS THE ETA SHOWING
THE H85 FRONT JUST MOVING OFFSHORE BY 12Z...SO WILL RAISE POPS
SOMEWHAT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR UVM ASSOC W/ THE UPR
FEATURES...BUT WILL STILL NOT GO FOR THE LIKELY POPS SEEN IN THE 00Z
MET.

.LONG-TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ADDITIONAL 500HPA SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND JET DYNAMICS(500-200HPA Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE) SUPPORTS
PATCHY/AREAS RAIN MONDAY MORNING. STUBBORN CLOUDINESS MONDAY WILL
RAPIDLY ERODE MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURS. A WEAK
SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THEN CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT PER THE ETA80 WITH THE GFS80 LESS
FORCEFUL GIVEN A DIFFERING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE POSITION. THE GFS80
BOUNDARY LAYER DIAGNOSTICS DO LEND SOME CREDENCE TO THE ETA80
SOLUTION THOUGH. STUBBORN CLOUDINESS/COLD THERMAL ADVECTION WILL
CONFINE TEMPERATURES TO THE 60S DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STRONGLY DECOUPLES/STABILIZES MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SINK INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NEAR 50
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S GIVEN A DEEP AND WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. ONSHORE FLOW COMMENCES WEDNESDAY THEN GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EAST AND A SERIES OF SURFACE CYCLONES ADVANCE
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LEAD
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS BECOMING DOMINANT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEARTH OF CLOUDINESS
INITIALLY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BECOMES PROMINENT. MEX
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE AND WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY.

.MARINE...COLD THERMAL ADVECTION AND ADEQUATE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WARRANTS SCEC/LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET/SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 65 52 64 43 76 / 60 40 40 00 00
VICTORIA       61 49 61 40 74 / 70 50 50 05 00
LAREDO         59 51 68 47 78 / 50 40 20 00 00

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM FOR ALL COUNTIES.
SCA ALL MARINE ZONES.

&&

MJG/SHORT-TERM
85/LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
645 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2004

GMZ230-235-TXZ229>234-239>247-121000-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-
MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
645 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

BRISK OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT IN THE BAYS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 25 KNOTS
OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS SOME STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREAS. ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS FROM VICTORIA TO COTULLA. BECAUSE THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOCALIZED...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS VERY SLIM TODAY...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AREAS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY MORNING AS THE LAST IN
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS AN OFFSHORE FLOW.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1110 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 PM     TSTM WIND GUST   PORT OCONNOR           28.44N 96.40W
04/10/2004  55-60 MPH        CALHOUN           TX   AMATEUR RADIO
            ESTIMATED
            WIND SPEED

SMART