Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
345 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

.SHORT TERM...KBRO REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF HIDALGO COUNTY MOVING NORTH AT AROUND 15 MPH. VSBL SATL
IMAGERY AND LAPS LI FIELDS SHOW THAT THE ATMS OVER THE REGION HAVE
DESTABILIZED SOMEWHAT WHICH HAS ALLOWED ISOLD TO SCT CONV TO FIRE
AROUND THE BRO CWA...BUT OVERALL PCPN AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT LIGHT.  THE 5H CLOSED LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL TX TODAY AND HAS NOT SHOWN MUCH MOVEMENT TO THE EAST.  THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF SCT TO WIDESPREAD CONV OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF TX.  ETA AND GFS DATA SHOWS A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE KICKER SWINGING SOUTH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP THE 5H LOW AND LIFT IT NE OVER THE MID
GULF COAST BY TUES. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...PCPN
CHCS OVER THE BRO CWA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT DUE TO THE
UNSTABLE NATURE OF THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...ISOLD TO SCT CONV
WILL PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM.  OF THE SEVERAL SHORT RANGE
MODELS...THE GFS AND RUC MODELS SEEM TO OVERDO THE QPF FIELDS AROUND
THE REGION WITH THE MODELS BOTH INDICATING A LARGE MCS OVER THE CRP
AND BRO CWAS ALL MORNING LONG. THE ETA SEEMS MORE REASONABLE IN THE
HANDLING OF THE CONV THROUGH MON SHOWING PERIODIC CONV ROUNDS AS
ANOTHER 5H SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX ON MON.  SO WILL
KEEP MAINLY CHC POPS IN THROUGH MON.  ATTM...THE CONV DURATION AND
AREAL COVERAGE INDICATED BY THE ETA MODEL WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO
LIMIT WIDESPREAD HVY RAIN.  HOWEVER...AS THE CONV BUILDS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF HIDALGO COUNTY...WILL NEED AN FFA THROUGH 10 PM FOR THE
WESTERN CWA AS I AM CONCERNED THAT THE DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL FIRE OFF ENOUGH CELLS TO PRODUCE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV TEMPS AS MET TEMPS ARE GOING NEAR 99 FOR
MFE TOMORROW WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE MOIST
NATURE OF THE ATMS.
&&

.LONG TERM...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLD TO SCT CONV IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT AROUND
THE BASE OF THE 5H RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONV TO
PERSIST.
&&

.MARINE...BUOY 020 REPORTED EAST WINDS AT 2 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 7
KNOTS AND SEAS AT 3 FEET WITH A 7 SECOND PERIOD.  A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING
TO FILTER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AT THE UPPER
LEVELS.  HOWEVER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.  WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
DIMINISHED OVER THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE BEING
REPORTED AT THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL
CHANCES ARE BEGINNING TO LESSEN OVER THE CWA AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER OVER THE AREA AT THE UPPER LEVELS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR TO
MVFR  CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING
THROUGH 10 PM FOR TXZ248>250-252-253.
&&

SYNOPTIC...60
MARINE/AVIATION/MESO...63

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
502 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

TXZ248>257-271100-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
502 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THOUGH FURTHER RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING FROM HEAVIER RAINS IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOCALIZED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.