Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
635 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

.SHORT TERM...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH 4 AM CDT SATURDAY. STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND HAS DROPPED 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER CENTRAL JIM HOGG COUNTY. EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED
THE PUBLIC FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND SHIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST THEN NORTH BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...RETURNING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...LONGER RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS
MOISTURE VALUES DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK AS 5H RIDGING BUILDS
IN THE TX COASTLINE AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS FURTHER
WEST OVER CENTRAL MEX AND WEST TX. WILL KEEP ISOLD/CHC POPS IN FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK.  THE INCREASED RIDGING AND DRYING ATMS WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT RESULTING IN TEMPS NEAR AND ABOVE CLIMO.
&&

.MARINE...AT 2 PM BUOY 020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS AT 16 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 4 FEET WITH A 6 SECOND PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH LOCATED OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.  AS A RESULT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
OVER THE MARINE AREAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE REGIONAL
AIRPORTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDUCE CEILINGS TO MVFR AND
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING
TONIGHT FOR TXZ248>257.
&&

SYNOPTIC...53
MARINE/AVIATION/MESO...58

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
424 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

TXZ248>257-261200-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
424 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL 4 AM
SATURDAY...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS INTERACTS WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  SOME AREAS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS COULD POSSIBLY RECEIVE OVERALL STORM TOTALS FROM TWO TO FOUR
INCHES BY 4 AM SATURDAY MORNING. ANY INTENSE RAIN THE DEVELOPS OVER
SATURATED GROUND WILL MAKE FLASH FLOODING A CONCERN. IN ADDITION TO
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND. BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL START TO RETURN TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR RAINFALL AND SEVERE
WEATHER REPORT. EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ASKED TO MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CLOSELY THIS WEEKEND.

SPEECE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
651 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

TXZ248>257-260200-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
651 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE ENTERED ZAPATA...
JIM HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTIES...

A AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES HAVE BEEN
ESTIMATED BY DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE. THIS AREA...ALONG
WITH MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...HAS ALREADY RECEIVED
COPIOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND BROOKS
COUNTIES TONIGHT...WITH ALL OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT.

IF DRIVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...EXPECT FLOODED ROADWAYS AT TIME. ALWAYS REMEMBER...
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...IF CONFRONTED WITH WATERS OF UNKNOWN
DEPTH...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO OR
YOUR LOCAL CABLE OUTLET...FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. PHILO

PHILO/KVS