Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Tulsa, OK

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
320 PM AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AS THE DRY LINE CONTINUES TO MIX EAST AND SHARPEN.

AT 3PM THE DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR PONCA CITY TO 25 MILES WEST
OF ARDMORE.  TEMPERATURES WERE REACHING THE INITIATION POINT ALONG
THE LENGTH OF THE DRY LINE IN OKLAHOMA WITH SCATTERED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER.  WITH CAPES AROUND 5000 J/KG EVERY STORM
THAT FORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ...
WITH THE EXTREME INSTABILITY COMPENSATING FOR THE SMALL LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS.  THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY ESTABLISHED
SUPERCELL.

RUC GRID POINT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAX
THAT WILL PROPOGATE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...WITH A
SECOND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AREA INCREASING IN FAR SOUTHAST OKLAHOMA
IN PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES.  THESES AREA MAY BE THE MOST
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND THE ATTENDENT THREAT FOR
STRONG TORNADOES.

THE DRY LINE WILL MOVE EAST TO BE NEAR A COFFEYVILLE...MCALESTER...
DURANT LINE BY 00Z.  THE ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTORS ALOFT AND
PRESENCE OF CAP WILL SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT SPREADING INTO ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.

FORECAST ID= 8

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. AS A RESULT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSED.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE
A DRYLINE EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. STORMS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WIND FIELDS AT THE SURFACE AND ABOVE THE GROUND ARE
FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO ROTATE AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND STORMS SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST /OKCPNSTUL/ TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY
RULES.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ON TUESDAY.  UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

ARZ001>002-010>011-019>020-029-OKZ054>076-050000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1241 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH #232 UNTIL 700
PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS:

BENTON                CARROLL               CRAWFORD
MADISON               WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS:

FRANKLIN              SEBASTIAN

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 23 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE
SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 CRAIG                 CREEK
DELAWARE              MAYES                 NOWATA
OKMULGEE              OSAGE                 OTTAWA
PAWNEE                ROGERS                TULSA
WAGONER               WASHINGTON

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

HASKELL               LATIMER               LE FLORE
MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARTLESVILLE...BENTONVILLE...
BERRYVILLE...BRISTOW...BROKEN ARROW...CEDARVILLE...CLAREMORE...
EUFAULA...EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...FORT SMITH...HUNTSVILLE...
JAY...MCALESTER...MIAMI...MOUNTAINBURG...MUSKOGEE...NATURAL DAM...
NOWATA...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...OZARK...PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...POTEAU...
PRYOR...ROGERS...SALLISAW...SAND SPRINGS...SILOAM SPRINGS...
SPRINGDALE...STIGLER...STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...VAN BUREN...
VINITA...WAGONER AND WILBURTON.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR
THE LATEST ON THIS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER
INFORMATION...INCLUDING RELATED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.

OKZ049-053-050200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
304 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH #234 UNTIL 900
PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES...
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CHOCTAW               PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANTLERS...CLAYTON AND HUGO.