Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Tulsa, OK

May 10, 2003Franklin County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 10, 2003, 5:12 PM CDT for Franklin County, Arkansas. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 10, 2003, 5:12 PM CDT (22:12 UTC)
Expired: May 10, 2003, 5:45 PM CDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Franklin County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 10, 4:00 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1867 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -15 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 689 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 296 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 300 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 3.5
Supercell composite: 12.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

265 
WUUS54 KTSA 102212
SVRTUL
ARC047-102245-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
511 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 511 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 10
  MILES WEST OF BRANCH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...OZARK...
  BRANCH...DENNING...ALTUS AND WIEDERKEHR VILLAGE.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED 
IN THE WARNED AREA. STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE 
STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.

LAT...LON 3540 9407 3526 9407 3539 9369 3557 9370

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 10, 5:05 PM CDT, 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 10, 5:05 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
505 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

AT 5PM THE DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF VINITA TO 5
MILES WEST OF BRISTOW AND ON SOUTHWEST.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
25 MILES NORTH OF BARTLESVILLE TO NEAR STILWATER AND CONTINUED ON TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE INTO THE DRY LINE AND
THEN DRIVE SOUTHEAST.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT STORMS COULD
REFORM AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE DRY LINE POSITION.  IF THEY
FORM...ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR A SEVERE THREAT.  THEREFORE
ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE BACK EDGE OF SPC WATCH 338 HAS BEEN CLEARED.

FORECAST ID=08

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE

Hazardous weather outlook, May 10, 1:00 PM CDT, 4 hours 12 minutes before

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING ALONG A WIND
SHIFT LINE FROM NEAR BARTLESVILLE TO JUST EAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY TO
WITCHITA FALLS.  THIS LINE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

RICH MOISTURE...EXTREME INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS WILL
LEAD TO SOME SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  A SQUALL LINE WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
FROM THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS AND IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ALSO
PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS BY AROUND
TUESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.  SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS VERY CLOSELY TODAY.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 10, 4:15 PM CDT, 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0415 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0414 PM    FERN                      AR   1.75 IN HAIL
05/10/03   FRANKLIN

SP

Local storm report, May 10, 4:32 PM CDT, 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0432 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0426 PM    3 N MULBERRY              AR   1.00 IN HAIL
05/10/03   CRAWFORD

0428 PM    5 N OZARK                 AR   1.25 IN HAIL
05/10/03   FRANKLIN

0430 PM    JETHRO                    AR   1.00 IN HAIL
05/10/03   FRANKLIN

SP

Local storm report, May 10, 4:33 PM CDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0433 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0433 PM    POCOLA                    OK   1.00 IN HAIL
05/10/03   LE FLORE

SP

Local storm report, May 10, 4:40 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0440 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0438 PM    FORT SMITH                AR   0.88 IN HAIL
05/10/03   SEBASTIAN

SP

Local storm report, May 10, 4:43 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0443 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0442 PM    FORT SMITH                AR   1.75 IN HAIL
05/10/03   SEBASTIAN

SP

Special weather statement, May 10, 5:00 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

ARZ020-102230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 530
   PM CDT...

AT 500 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING OUT OF CRAWFORD AND SEBASTION COUNTIES INTO FRANKLIN COUNTY.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MILES AN HOUR.
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUST TO 40 MILES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 10, 3:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Washington	44 min
May 10, 3:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Franklin, Madison	51 min
May 10, 3:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Sebastian	47 min
May 10, 3:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Washington	21 min
May 10, 4:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll, Franklin, Madison	56 min
May 10, 4:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Sebastian	43 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.