Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Tulsa, OK

May 10, 2003Carroll County, Franklin County, Madison County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 10, 2003, 4:19 PM CDT for Carroll County, Franklin County, Madison County, Arkansas. It was in force for 56 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 10, 2003, 4:19 PM CDT (21:19 UTC)
Expired: May 10, 2003, 5:15 PM CDT
In force: 56 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Carroll County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Madison County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 10, 11:55 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr
May 10, 4:00 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 104 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1867 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -15 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 689 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 296 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 300 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 3.5
Supercell composite: 12.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

880 
WUUS54 KTSA 102119
SVRTUL
ARC015-047-087-102215-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
416 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
  MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
  NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 416 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS       
  ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HINDSVILLE TO HUNTSVILLE TO
  SAINT PAUL TO OZARK...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...    
  HUNTSVILLE...AURORA...WITTER...JETHRO...OZARK...RUDD AND
  OSAGE.
  
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH CAN BE 
EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA. STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS 
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.

LAT...LON 3621 9388 3586 9391 3551 9413 3544 9369
          3627 9329 3627 9364

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 10, 3:42 PM CDT, 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 10, 3:42 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
342 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

LARGE SEVERE STORM MOVING INTO CRAWFORD COUNTY ARKANSAS SHOULD HAVE
INCREASING WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL TO ACCOMPNAY THE GIANT HAIL THAT
HAS BEEN OCCURRING.  RECENT RADAR IMAGES SHOW A DRY AIR CHANNEL
DEVELOPING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE REFLECTIVITY...INDICATING A
PROLONG DAMAGGING WIND EVENING MAY BE ABOUT TO START.

FORECAST ID=08

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE

Hazardous weather outlook, May 10, 1:00 PM CDT, 3 hours 19 minutes before

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING ALONG A WIND
SHIFT LINE FROM NEAR BARTLESVILLE TO JUST EAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY TO
WITCHITA FALLS.  THIS LINE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

RICH MOISTURE...EXTREME INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS WILL
LEAD TO SOME SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  A SQUALL LINE WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
FROM THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS AND IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ALSO
PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS BY AROUND
TUESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.  SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS VERY CLOSELY TODAY.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 10, 3:50 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0350 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0349 PM    FORT SMITH                AR   0.88 IN HAIL
05/10/03   SEBASTIAN

SP

Local storm report, May 10, 3:51 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0351 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0347 PM    2 S CEDARVILLE            AR   1.00 IN HAIL
05/10/03   CRAWFORD

SP

Local storm report, May 10, 3:53 PM CDT, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0353 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0353 PM    FORT SMITH                AR   1.00 IN HAIL
05/10/03   SEBASTIAN

SP

Local storm report, May 10, 3:55 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0355 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0355 PM    VAN BUREN                 AR   1.00 IN HAIL
05/10/03   CRAWFORD

SP

Special weather statement, May 10, 4:05 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

ARZ002-010>011-019>020-029-110200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH #342 UNTIL 900
PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS:

CARROLL               CRAWFORD              MADISON
WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS:

FRANKLIN              SEBASTIAN

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BERRYVILLE...CEDARVILLE...EUREKA
SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...FORT SMITH...HUNTSVILLE...MOUNTAINBURG...
NATURAL DAM...OZARK...SPRINGDALE AND VAN BUREN.

THIS REPLACES TORNADO WATCH #338 THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THESE 6
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM.

Local storm report, May 10, 4:15 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0415 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0414 PM    FERN                      AR   1.75 IN HAIL
05/10/03   FRANKLIN

SP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 10, 3:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Washington	44 min
May 10, 3:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Franklin, Madison	51 min
May 10, 3:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Sebastian	47 min
May 10, 3:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Washington	21 min
May 10, 4:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Sebastian	43 min
May 10, 5:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Franklin	33 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.