Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Great Falls, MT

July 8, 2003Judith Basin County, Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 8, 2003, 12:37 PM MDT for Judith Basin County, Montana. It was in force for 38 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 8, 2003, 12:37 PM MDT (18:37 UTC)
Expired: Jul 8, 2003, 1:15 PM MDT
In force: 38 min
Issued by: NWS Great Falls, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Judith Basin County, MT

The radar

The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 59 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1972 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -85 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

896 
WUUS55 KTFX 081837
SVRTFX
MTC045-081915-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1236 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN JUDITH BASIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MONTANA

* UNTIL 115 PM MDT

* AT 1234 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES WEST OF HOBSON...OR ABOUT 16 MILES
  SOUTH OF STANFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE OVER...
RURAL CENTRAL JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AT 1250 PM MDT

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4711 11052 4675 11038 4680 10984 4717 10993

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 8, 11:17 AM MDT, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 8, 11:17 AM MDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1115 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2003

.DISCUSSION...

.TODAY...UPDATED THE ZONES AGAIN TO DROP TEMPERATURES. NOT EXPECTING
TO SEE MUCH SUN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THE
EXCEPTION BEING PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL
LIKELY ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE
FERGUS COUNTY WHERE SOME HEATING IS OCCURRING DUE TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S. MEIER

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF MY CWA BY EARLY
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PROVIDING CONTINUED
DOWNSLOPE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND WARM
WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO NEAR
20 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...THEREBY INCREASING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MPJ

.EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO BUILD
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA ON FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING HOT.
I HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE BUY A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
A CHANCE IN THE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY ON MONDAY...AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST.
SO I HAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH A BIT
COOLER TEMPERATURES. FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BRUSDA

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF TU 071/053 085/050 081 14+00
    UUUUB 055/089 058/091 058/093 055/082 051 00000000033
CTB TB 071/051 080/049 079 14400
    UUUUB 053/086 055/088 055/090 052/078 049 00000000033
HLN TU 078/053 086/055 087 14700
    UUUUB 060/092 063/094 063/096 059/085 049 00000000033
BZN BU 076/046 086/045 084 14300
    UUUUB 050/091 053/093 053/095 052/086 049 00000000033
WEY BU 079/039 080/047 076 14200
    UUUUB 052/085 055/087 055/089 053/082 044 00000000033
DLN BU 082/047 086/046 082 14200
    UUUUB 054/089 054/091 054/093 053/083 046 00000000033
HVR TU 073/054 085/052 084 14+30
    UUUUB 056/090 058/092 058/094 057/084 054 00000000033
LWT TU 073/051 082/048 076 14930
    UUUUB 053/085 053/087 053/089 054/082 049 00000000033

.TFX...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 8, 9:20 AM MDT, 3 hours 17 minutes before

MTZ008>015-044>055-090010-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
920 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM CUT BANK...TO GREAT FALLS...TO BOZEMAN. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 8, 10:27 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Broadwater	33 min
Jul 8, 11:01 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Gallatin	44 min
Jul 8, 12:27 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine, Fergus	48 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.