Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Great Falls, MT

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
945 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2003

UPDATE TO ZONES AND STATE

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...AT 12Z A SHORTWAVE WAS FROM SE B.C. INTO NE WA. THERE WAS A
LITTLE BIT OF A CHINOOK ARCH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES E OF THAT AREA BY NOON EXPECT CHINOOK ARCH TO
DISSIPATE. WINDS ALONG THE NRN ZONES COULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE 20 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD STAY ABOVE 20
PERCENT SO FEEL A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOT WARRANTED. CHECK OF 15Z
TEMPERATURES AGAINST GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS SUGGESTS
HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL SO WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE
THE ONES OVER THE PLAINS 2 TO 3 DEGREES. BLANK

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER MONTANA WITH OCCASIONAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE PRODUCING
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION AS
THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE GAINS IN AMPLITUDE...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE. MPJ

.EXTENDED...ECMWF AND GFS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND
INTENSITY OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FOUR CORNERS
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER
IDAHO FRIDAY...OVER CENTRAL MONTANA SAT AND SUN...DRY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 DURING FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND
GUSTY DURING THE WEEKEND WILL ENHANCE FIRE RISK. BY MON SW FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS REGION WITH UPPER LOW OFF SW CANADIAN COAST.  ECMWF
FASTER THAN GFS WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LOW...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW
SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF UU 086/051 087/053 087 14000
    BUUBB 058/091 058/093 055/082 051/081 051 00000003322
CTB UU 081/050 082/052 085 14000
    BUUBB 055/088 055/090 052/078 049/077 049 00000003333
HLN UU 090/054 091/057 090 14000
    UUUBB 063/094 063/096 059/085 049/084 049 00000003333
BZN UU 085/046 089/049 088 14000
    UUUBB 053/093 053/095 052/086 049/085 049 00000002222
WEY UU 079/048 080/049 083 14000
    UUUBB 055/087 055/089 053/082 044/081 044 00000003322
DLN UU 086/049 089/052 087 14000
    UUUBB 054/091 054/093 053/083 046/082 046 00000002333
HVR UU 083/052 087/054 088 14000
    BUUBU 058/092 058/094 057/084 054/083 054 00000003322
LWT UU 081/049 081/051 083 14000
    UUUBB 053/087 053/089 054/082 049/081 049 00000003333

.TFX...NONE.

MTZ008>015-044>055-090010-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
920 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM CUT BANK...TO GREAT FALLS...TO BOZEMAN. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.