Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Great Falls, MT

July 8, 2003Broadwater County, Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 8, 2003, 10:27 AM MDT for Broadwater County, Montana. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 8, 2003, 10:27 AM MDT (16:27 UTC)
Expired: Jul 8, 2003, 11:00 AM MDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS Great Falls, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Broadwater County, MT

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 4.5 hours before the alert went out and 171 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1972 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -85 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

957 
WUUS55 KTFX 081627
SVRTFX
MTC007-081700-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1025 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN BROADWATER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TOWNSEND

* UNTIL 1100 AM MDT

* AT 1020 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 23 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TOSTON...OR ABOUT 24
  MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOULDER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  5 MILES SOUTH OF TOSTON AT 1100 AM MDT
  CROSSING STATE HIGHWAY 287 NEAR HEADWATERS STATE PARK AT 1045 AM MDT

HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE 
WITH THIS STORM.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS.

LAT...LON 4593 11166 4603 11166 4606 11178 4613 11178
          4637 11150 4620 11133 4600 11148

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 8, 9:45 AM MDT, 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 8, 9:45 AM MDT, 42 minutes before

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
945 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2003

UPDATE TO ZONES AND STATE

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...AT 12Z A SHORTWAVE WAS FROM SE B.C. INTO NE WA. THERE WAS A
LITTLE BIT OF A CHINOOK ARCH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES E OF THAT AREA BY NOON EXPECT CHINOOK ARCH TO
DISSIPATE. WINDS ALONG THE NRN ZONES COULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE 20 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD STAY ABOVE 20
PERCENT SO FEEL A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOT WARRANTED. CHECK OF 15Z
TEMPERATURES AGAINST GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS SUGGESTS
HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL SO WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE
THE ONES OVER THE PLAINS 2 TO 3 DEGREES. BLANK

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER MONTANA WITH OCCASIONAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE PRODUCING
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION AS
THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE GAINS IN AMPLITUDE...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE. MPJ

.EXTENDED...ECMWF AND GFS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND
INTENSITY OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FOUR CORNERS
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER
IDAHO FRIDAY...OVER CENTRAL MONTANA SAT AND SUN...DRY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 DURING FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND
GUSTY DURING THE WEEKEND WILL ENHANCE FIRE RISK. BY MON SW FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS REGION WITH UPPER LOW OFF SW CANADIAN COAST.  ECMWF
FASTER THAN GFS WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LOW...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW
SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF UU 086/051 087/053 087 14000
    BUUBB 058/091 058/093 055/082 051/081 051 00000003322
CTB UU 081/050 082/052 085 14000
    BUUBB 055/088 055/090 052/078 049/077 049 00000003333
HLN UU 090/054 091/057 090 14000
    UUUBB 063/094 063/096 059/085 049/084 049 00000003333
BZN UU 085/046 089/049 088 14000
    UUUBB 053/093 053/095 052/086 049/085 049 00000002222
WEY UU 079/048 080/049 083 14000
    UUUBB 055/087 055/089 053/082 044/081 044 00000003322
DLN UU 086/049 089/052 087 14000
    UUUBB 054/091 054/093 053/083 046/082 046 00000002333
HVR UU 083/052 087/054 088 14000
    BUUBU 058/092 058/094 057/084 054/083 054 00000003322
LWT UU 081/049 081/051 083 14000
    UUUBB 053/087 053/089 054/082 049/081 049 00000003333

.TFX...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 8, 9:20 AM MDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

MTZ008>015-044>055-090010-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
920 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM CUT BANK...TO GREAT FALLS...TO BOZEMAN. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 8, 11:01 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Gallatin	44 min
Jul 8, 12:27 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine, Fergus	48 min
Jul 8, 12:37 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Judith Basin	38 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.