Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 978
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2003, 3:23 PM CDT for Hancock County, Henderson County, Illinois; 39 counties in Iowa; 8 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 97 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 14, 2003, 3:23 PM CDT (20:23 UTC)
- Expired
- May 14, 2003, 5:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 97 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 49 counties
Adair County, IA, Adams County, IA, Appanoose County, IA, Audubon County, IA, Cass County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Lee County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Madison County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Page County, IA, Polk County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Clark County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Scotland County, MO, Worth County, MO
The radar
The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 220 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2025 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 56 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 6 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 67 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
146 ACUS11 KWNS 142024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142023 TXZ000-OKZ000-142230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0979 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...N TX / SRN OK... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142023Z - 142230Z A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS N TX AND ADJACENT SRN OK AHEAD OF DRYLINE / INVOF W-E FRONT. IF CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WW WILL BE REQUIRED. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NEAR ABI...WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM E OF ABI SWD TO NEAR JCT...AND THEN SWWD TO W OF DRT. WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW EWD -- N OF MWL / DFW TO NEAR GGG ATTM. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST EAST OF DRYLINE...AND WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 2000 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED. HOWEVER...MORNING FWD RAOB SHOWED VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE. WITH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEST OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AXIS NOW ACROSS CENTRAL OK ACCORDING TO LATEST WV IMAGERY...SYNOPTIC-SCALE UVV APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING INTO NERN TX. GIVEN LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CU DEVELOPMENT NEAR DRYLINE / LOW THUS FAR...IT APPEARS THAT CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MAIN SEVERE THREAT EXISTS E OF THIS REGION -- ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 371. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLVING UVV FIELD / CAP STRENGTH...AS ANY BREACH OF THE CAP ACROSS N TX WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN KINEMATIC / THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. ..GOSS.. 05/14/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... 34339968 34439908 34099727 32869631 31809735 31649946 32669945 33399933
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 12:36 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Brown, Bureau, Cass, Champaign, Christian and 38 more | 84 min |
| May 14, 1:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brown, Bureau, Cass, Champaign, DeWitt, Douglas and 33 more | 6 hr |
| May 14, 2:00 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Henderson, Mercer | 5 hr |
| May 14, 2:45 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bureau, Cass, Champaign, Christian, Coles, DeWitt and 32 more | 60 min |
| May 14, 5:07 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Bureau, Cass, Champaign, DeWitt, Douglas and 28 more | 113 min |
| May 14, 6:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bond, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Champaign, Christian and 35 more | 5 hr |
| May 13, 8:38 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Fremont, Page | 2 hr |
| May 14, 12:40 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Adams, Audubon, Boone, Cass, Clarke and 22 more | 95 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.