Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 974

May 14, 200328 counties in Iowa; Atchison County, Missouri; 20 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2003, 12:40 PM CDT for 28 counties in Iowa; Atchison County, Missouri; 20 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 14, 2003, 12:40 PM CDT (17:40 UTC)
Expired
May 14, 2003, 2:15 PM CDT
In force
95 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 49 counties

Adair County, IA, Adams County, IA, Audubon County, IA, Boone County, IA, Cass County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Fremont County, IA, Greene County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Madison County, IA, Marion County, IA, Mills County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Polk County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Story County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Warren County, IA, Atchison County, MO, Butler County, NE, Cass County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Fillmore County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Merrick County, NE, Nance County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Polk County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Washington County, NE, York County, NE

The radar

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 42 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2003-05-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2003-05-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 6 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2025 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
6 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
67 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

012 
ACUS11 KWNS 141741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141740 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-141915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB / WRN IA...

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141740Z - 141915Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE / INCREASE ACROSS E CENTRAL
NEB / W CENTRAL AND SWRN IA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.  WW MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

TCU / CB DEVELOPMENT IS OBSERVED ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IN A W-E
BAND ACROSS E CENTRAL NEB INTO W CENTRAL IA INVOF WEAK SURFACE
CONFLUENCE ZONE INDICATED BY LATEST ANALYSIS.  DAYTIME HEATING
BENEATH COLD /AROUND -20C/ MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES / STEEP LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL AIRMASS
INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/.	

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY / LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED ACROSS THIS
REGION...AREA IS ON NRN FRINGE OF 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. 
RESULTING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITHIN UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND
PROFILE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED / ROTATING MID-LEVEL
UPDRAFTS.  THIS COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HAIL UP TO 1.75 IN DIAMETER...IN ADDITION
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING GUST.

..GOSS.. 05/14/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...

41359831 41709699 41949507 42219389 41819285 40849284
40289603 40629851

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 13, 8:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFremont, Page2 hr
May 14, 12:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDes Moines, Henry, Johnson, Lee, Louisa, Muscatine and 1 more84 min
May 14, 2:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Cass, Clarke and 34 more5 hr
May 14, 3:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Cass, Clarke and 33 more97 min
May 14, 6:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCLincoln5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.