Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 973

May 14, 200344 counties in Illinois; 7 counties in Iowa; Clark County, Lewis County, Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2003, 12:36 PM CDT for 44 counties in Illinois; 7 counties in Iowa; Clark County, Lewis County, Missouri. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 14, 2003, 12:36 PM CDT (17:36 UTC)
Expired: May 14, 2003, 2:00 PM CDT
In force: 84 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 53 counties

Des Moines County, IA, Henry County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Lee County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Washington County, IA, Adams County, IL, Brown County, IL, Bureau County, IL, Cass County, IL, Champaign County, IL, Christian County, IL, Coles County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Ford County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Greene County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Iroquois County, IL, Knox County, IL, Livingston County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Mason County, IL, McDonough County, IL, McLean County, IL, Menard County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Pike County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Stark County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Warren County, IL, Woodford County, IL, Clark County, MO, Lewis County, MO

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 23 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1154 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 44 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 132 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

645 
ACUS11 KWNS 141736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141736 
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-141900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0973
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA....NWRN MO...CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141736Z - 141900Z

SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
ERN IA ESEWD INTO NERN MO/CNTRL IL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A WW IS
LIKELY ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL IL IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS CONVECTION
BUILDS SWD.

IR/VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID-UPPER LVL LOW ROTATING OVER SERN
SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA WITH TYPICAL COMMA TYPE CLOUD SHIELD FORMING.
COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES /-18C/ AND AREAS OF SURFACE HEATING IN
CNTRL/ECNTRL IL WILL ALLOW RAPID AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST RECENT SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS
INDICATE 100MB MIXED CAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG IN PARTS OF SERN
IA/EXTREME WRN IL...AND WITH EXPECTED AT LEAST PARTIAL
INSOLATION...VALUES WILL LIKELY RISE TO BETWEEN 750-1000 J/KG OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE 
LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH A STRONG DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD DEVELOP
WHEN/IF STORMS BECOME LINEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..NADEN.. 05/14/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

39118863 39259071 40129181 41759191 41198792 40078752

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 14, 1:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Brown, Bureau, Cass, Champaign, DeWitt, Douglas and 33 more	6 hr
May 14, 2:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Henderson, Mercer	5 hr
May 14, 2:45 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bureau, Cass, Champaign, Christian, Coles, DeWitt and 32 more	60 min
May 14, 3:23 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Hancock, Henderson	97 min
May 14, 5:07 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brown, Bureau, Cass, Champaign, DeWitt, Douglas and 28 more	113 min
May 14, 6:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bond, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Champaign, Christian and 35 more	5 hr
May 13, 8:38 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Fremont, Page	2 hr
May 14, 12:40 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Adams, Audubon, Boone, Cass, Clarke and 22 more	95 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.