Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 94
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 16, 2003, 11:19 PM EST for 8 states. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 16, 2003, 11:19 PM EST (04:19 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 17, 2003, 5:15 AM EST
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 177 counties
Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Allegany County, MD, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Frederick County, MD, Garrett County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Washington County, MD, Wicomico County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Kings County, NY, New York County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Belmont County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Noble County, OH, Adams County, PA, Allegheny County, PA, Armstrong County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Berks County, PA, Blair County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Chester County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Fayette County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Greene County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Indiana County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Perry County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Washington County, PA, Westmoreland County, PA, York County, PA, Albemarle County, VA, Alleghany County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Bath County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greene County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Highland County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Madison County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, Barbour County, WV, Berkeley County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Brooke County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Grant County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Marion County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Monongalia County, WV, Morgan County, WV, Ohio County, WV, Pendleton County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Pocahontas County, WV, Preston County, WV, Randolph County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tucker County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Webster County, WV, Wetzel County, WV
The radar
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 00:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 48 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 493 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 50 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 403 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 1245 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
508 ACUS11 KWNS 170420 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170419 OHZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-DEZ000-171015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OH...SRN PA...WV...MD...VA...NJ...DE CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 170419Z - 171015Z EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1 IN/HR TO CONTINUE IN PARTS OF THESE AREAS THRU 17/10Z. WV/IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MID-LVL DRYING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LVL SPEED MAXIMUM / 70-80 KT / FROM SRN AL NNEWD INTO ECNTL TN/KY. MEANWHILE...THE REGION OF COOLEST CLOUD TOPS HAS SHIFTED ENEWD AND HAS ELONGATED LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LVL JET CORE. THESE TWO SPEED MAXIMA FEATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE FLUX LEVELS WILL AID IN THE CONTINUATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES THRU THE EARLY MRNG HOURS. RECENT VAD PROFILES AT BOTH FORT DIX AND DOVER SHOW 850MB ELY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 50-55 KTS THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS TREND ALONG WITH THE MAINTENANCE OF STRONG MID-LVL OMEGA AND FRONTOGENETICAL FIELDS SUGGEST HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE. RECENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS INDICATE SNOW WILL CHANGEOVER TO SLEET FROM EXTREME NRN VA EWD THRU MUCH OF SRN/SCNTRL MD INTO DE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM NRN/NCNTRL NJ...WSWWD THRU SRN PA...INTO NRN MD...AND NRN WV. ..NADEN.. 02/17/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... 38838108 39888156 41007928 40807615 41077422 40287319 39257399 38307528 37147783 37538000
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 7:04 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kent, New Castle, Sussex | 4 hr |
| Feb 16, 7:31 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Calvert, Charles, Dorchester, Saint Mary's, Talbot | 6 hr |
| Feb 17, 11:16 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland and 15 more | 7 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.