Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 93

February 16, 20035 counties in Maryland; 8 counties in North Carolina; 36 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 16, 2003, 7:31 PM EST for 5 counties in Maryland; 8 counties in North Carolina; 36 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 16, 2003, 7:31 PM EST (00:31 UTC)
Expired: Feb 17, 2003, 1:30 AM EST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 49 counties

Calvert County, MD, Charles County, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Durham County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Amelia County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Richmond, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Essex County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, James City County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Sussex County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA

The radar

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 159 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 531 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 62 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 506 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 878 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

781 
ACUS11 KWNS 170031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170031 
NCZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-170630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR NERN NC/SERN VA/SRN MD

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 170031Z - 170630Z

FREEZING RAIN WITH GLAZING RATES OF UP TO ONE-TENTH /0.1/ INCH
PER HOUR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NC NEWD
ACROSS SERN VA AND INTO THE SRN-CNTRL CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION OVER
THE NEXT 6 HOURS.



WET-BULB/SURFACE FREEZING LINE WAS CURRENTLY ALONG A WAL-AKQ-RWI
LINE AND HAS SHOWN LITTLE INLAND/WWD PROGRESS OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. LATEST ETA WAS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVED
BOUNDARY LAYER 0C ISOTHERM AND FCSTS INDICATE ONLY SLIGHT INLAND
PENETRATION OF WARMER MARITIME AIRMASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DELMARVA REGION NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...MIDLEVEL JET STREAK
WAS NOTED ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTH-CNTRL GULF COAST REGION AND IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL
ELY FLOW WAS INTENSIFYING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT. 1KM VWP WINDS AT AKQ
AND DOX HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED TO 50KT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN INCREDIBLY INTENSE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INFLUX INTO AND ABOVE ENTRENCHED ARCTIC COLD DOME
SITUATED FROM NY/NEW ENGLAND SSWWD TO CNTRL CAROLINAS. THUS
EXPECT MORE FREEZING RAIN IN A SSW-NNE BAND INLAND FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.



..CARBIN.. 02/17/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

38497703 38927606 38257571 37687637 35897819 35667884
35797904 36207923 36867893 37357848 38067760

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 16, 7:04 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegany, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll and 12 more	4 hr
Feb 16, 11:19 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegany, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll and 17 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.