Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 95

February 17, 20035 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 17, 2003, 11:16 AM EST for 5 states. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 17, 2003, 11:16 AM EST (16:16 UTC)
Expired: Feb 17, 2003, 6:45 PM EST
In force: 7 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 39 counties

Berkshire County, MA, Bristol County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Middlesex County, MA, Norfolk County, MA, Suffolk County, MA, Worcester County, MA, Cheshire County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Rockingham County, NH, Albany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Bristol County, RI, Kent County, RI, Newport County, RI, Providence County, RI, Bennington County, VT, Windham County, VT

The radar

The Albany radar (KENX), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 58 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1498 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 99 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -9 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

723 
ACUS11 KWNS 171617
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171616 
NYZ000-CTZ000-RIZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NHZ000-172345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST MON FEB 17 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NY...MUCH OF MA/CT/RI AND SRN VT/NH

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 171616Z - 172345Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES FROM 1-3 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP FROM SRN NY ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM 10-14 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH
18/00Z FROM BGM AREA IN SCENTRAL NY EWD INTO ERN MA. 



VERY STRONG 0-3 KM THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AS EVIDENT
BY LONG STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS PER DIX/OKX VWP/S WAS THE MAIN
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO ONGOING HEAVY SNOW OVER NJ/SERN NY. AN
OVERVIEW OF IR/WV SAT IMAGERY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS INDICATES
THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION HAS INCREASED OVER MUCH OF
PA/NY AS EVIDENT BY RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN THIS REGION.
12Z UA ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A W-E ORIENTED MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM WRN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRY SLOT DEVELOPMENT ON THE
CYCLONIC SIDE OF 130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG WITH STRONG CVA
AHEAD VORT MAX CENTERED OVER VA/NC AT 17/16Z WILL AID IN
INTENSIFYING THIS MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE MOST FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE /BETWEEN
650-550 MB/ SUPPORTING THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES/TOTALS WILL
EXIST ALONG 50-100 MILE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SCENTRAL NY INTO ERN
MA THROUGH 18/00Z. 



..CROSBIE.. 02/17/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

43217608 42107682 41567389 41437291 41427159 41547060
42367094 43107090 43217361

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 16, 11:19 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Kings, New York, Queens, Richmond	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Massachusetts, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Connecticut, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.