Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 86

February 16, 20036 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 16, 2003, 6:48 AM EST for 6 counties in Florida. It was in force for 117 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 16, 2003, 6:48 AM EST (11:48 UTC)
Expired
Feb 16, 2003, 8:45 AM EST
In force
117 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Dixie County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Suwannee County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL

The radar

The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 00:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 66 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 00:00Z on 2003-02-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 00:00Z on 2003-02-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 78 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
847 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
78 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
101 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

113 
ACUS11 KWNS 161148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161148 
FLZ000-161345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0548 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161148Z - 161345Z

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...



BROAD ZONE OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
PERSISTS AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF
MEXICO.  LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SHIFTING EWD AT ROUGHLY
20 KT...ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE LIFTING NEWD.  AIR MASS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA AND NERN GULF IS SOMEWHAT DRIER
AND MORE STABLE THAN UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT EARLIER THIS MORNING. 
ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR STORM ROTATION IT APPEARS
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT TERRIBLY CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT.  TORNADO WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY.

..DARROW.. 02/16/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

29778487 30508402 30358298 29158285

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 15, 8:44 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEscambia, Santa Rosa3 hr
Feb 16, 3:55 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Gadsden, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Leon and 5 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.