Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 85

February 16, 2003Geneva County, Houston County, Alabama; 11 counties in Florida; 5 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 16, 2003, 2:55 AM CST for Geneva County, Houston County, Alabama; 11 counties in Florida; 5 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 16, 2003, 2:55 AM CST (08:55 UTC)
Expired: Feb 16, 2003, 5:00 AM CST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Geneva County, AL, Houston County, AL, Calhoun County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Leon County, FL, Liberty County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Decatur County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Miller County, GA, Seminole County, GA

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 00:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 847 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 78 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 101 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 160856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160855 
FLZ000-ALZ000-GAZ000-161100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE...EXTREME SERN AL AND SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 160855Z - 161100Z

...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...



CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE
DEVELOPED WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO...STRETCHING NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. 
LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGEST MARITIME TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER
IS APPROACHING THE COAST...ALONG WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY.  UPSTREAM...RADAR DATA INDICATES OUTFLOW FROM BACK EDGE
OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER WEST IS SURGING EWD AND WILL
SOON INTERACT WITH LEADING CELLS LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE.  LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND CELL INTERACTION MAY
ALLOW A FEW OF THIS STORMS TO BRIEFLY ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS WITH
POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...ALTHOUGH
SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ROTATION...DO NOT SUGGEST INTENSE
MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADO WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

..DARROW.. 02/16/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

30388697 31278625 31428513 30958396 29878363

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 15, 7:44 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baldwin, Escambia, Mobile	3 hr
Feb 15, 8:51 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Autauga, Bibb, Blount, Butler, Chilton, Choctaw and 19 more	84 min
Feb 16, 5:48 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Dixie, Jefferson, Lafayette, Suwannee, Taylor, Wakulla	117 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.