Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 82

February 15, 20034 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 15, 2003, 7:44 PM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 15, 2003, 7:44 PM CST (01:44 UTC)
Expired: Feb 15, 2003, 10:45 PM CST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Baldwin County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Escambia County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Plaquemines Parish, LA, Saint Bernard Parish, LA, George County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Jackson County, MS, Stone County, MS

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 00:00Z, 1.7 hours before the alert went out and 160 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1106 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -1 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 603 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 190 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 102 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.9
Supercell composite: 4.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

412 
ACUS11 KWNS 160144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160144 
LAZ000-MSZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-160445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN LA / SERN MS / SRN AL / WRN FL
PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 160144Z - 160445Z

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SERN LA AND SERN MS
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.  DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...UNLESS THREAT
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY...NEW WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED AS AREA
NOT INCLUDED IN WWS 7 AND 8 IS LIMITED.



LATEST SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW MOIST / MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE GULF COAST / LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
ATTM.  WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INDICATED BY MOB WSR-88D...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING.  SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION MAY BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL VORT MAX / JET STREAK AND APPROACH OF UPPER
60F SURFACE DEW POINTS.  LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE SUGGESTS WW NOT
NECESSARY ATTM...THOUGH AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN ANY
FURTHER WW/S LATER THIS EVENING.

..GOSS.. 02/16/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

31258665 30778657 30308715 30038874 29048903 29318988
30688930 31248847

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 15, 8:51 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Autauga, Bibb, Blount, Butler, Chilton, Choctaw and 19 more	84 min
Feb 16, 2:55 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Geneva, Houston	2 hr
Feb 16, 5:48 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Dixie, Jefferson, Lafayette, Suwannee, Taylor, Wakulla	117 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.