Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 705

May 3, 20035 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 3, 2003, 12:29 PM CDT for 5 states. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 3, 2003, 12:29 PM CDT (17:29 UTC)
Expired
May 3, 2003, 3:30 PM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 62 counties

Columbia County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Miller County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Union County, AR, Bienville Parish, LA, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, Caldwell Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Jackson Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Ouachita Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Claiborne County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Warren County, MS, Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Coal County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Marshall County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Collin County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Marion County, TX, Morris County, TX, Rains County, TX, Red River County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Wood County, TX

The radar

The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 125 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 12:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 124 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2003-05-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2724 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2003-05-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 52 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2724 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-17 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
605 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
52 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
102 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
6.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

104 
ACUS11 KWNS 031729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031729 
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-032030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0705
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 03 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NERN TX...NRN LA...NRN MS AND SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031729Z - 032030Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT IN ARKLATEX
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS FARTHER E INTO SRN/CNTRL MS. TIMING
OF INITIATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT ONCE STORMS
DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.


SURFACE DATA SHOW A WARM FRONT FROM SRN MS WNWWD THROUGH NRN LA INTO
NERN AND N CNTRL TX. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SURFACE HEATING AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND S OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES ALREADY FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE
 DATA SHOW CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE ATMOSPHERE STILL APPEARS CAPPED NEAR THE BOUNDARY...
AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER RIDGING MAY DELAY SURFACE BASED
INITIATION ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD
AND EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING LIFT ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY ALREADY
SHOWS ISOLATED ELEVATED CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP N OF THE FRONT OVER
CNTRL OK. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER S CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE FRONT AS CAP WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW N
OF THE WARM FRONT UNDERNEATH MODERATE WLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS
SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
CURRENTLY RATHER WEAK..RESULTING IN RELATIVELY SMALL
HODOGRAPHS...AND THIS MAY INITIALLY SERVE AS LIMITING FACTOR FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET LATER THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT BIGGER HODOGRAPHS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..DIAL.. 05/03/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

34909562 33739333 32418995 31499009 32939720 34509698

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 2, 9:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 13 more2 hr
May 2, 9:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 15 more5 hr
May 2, 11:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 15 more93 min
May 3, 2:36 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleburne and 26 more24 min
May 3, 1:40 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Nevada and 1 more6 hr
May 3, 3:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Nevada and 1 more2 hr
May 3, 6:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Nevada and 1 more56 min
May 3, 4:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLivingston, Orleans, Saint Charles, Saint Helena, Saint John the Baptist, Saint Tammany and 2 more114 min
May 3, 4:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCConcordia, East Baton Rouge, East Carroll, East Feliciana, Franklin, Livingston and 9 more5 hr
May 3, 9:15 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCForrest, George, Greene, Harrison, Jackson, Jones and 3 more6 hr
May 3, 11:24 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGeorge, Greene, Jackson, Perry, Stone2 hr
May 3, 1:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Beckham, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Roger Mills and 2 more3 hr
May 3, 4:00 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCaddo, Comanche, Cotton, Grady, Greer, Harmon and 5 more5 hr
May 3, 6:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Comanche, Cotton, Custer and 11 more65 min
May 2, 8:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bell, Bosque, Burnet, Comanche, Coryell and 23 more96 min
May 2, 10:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBosque, Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche, Concho and 11 more95 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.