Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 700

May 2, 200317 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 2, 2003, 10:25 PM CDT for 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 2, 2003, 10:25 PM CDT (03:25 UTC)
Expired: May 3, 2003, 12:00 AM CDT
In force: 95 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Bosque County, TX, Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Concho County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Erath County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Mason County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Menard County, TX, Mills County, TX, Runnels County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Somervell County, TX

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 3.4 hours before the alert went out and 206 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2747 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -4 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 846 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 71 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 168 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 3.2
Supercell composite: 12.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

112 
ACUS11 KWNS 030325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030325 
TXZ000-030500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0700
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 030325Z - 030500Z

LARGE HAIL THREAT IS INCREASING WITH DEVELOPING TSTMS. WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.

REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX FROM MCCULLOCH COUNTY NEWD
THROUGH SAN SABA AND MILLS COUNTIES. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND
REGIONAL TRENDS IN PROFILER/VWP DATA SUGGEST TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
A ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE/LIFT WHERE DEVELOPING LLJ IS
INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SW OF TPL TO NW OF
JCT. AIRMASS INVOF DEVELOPING TSTMS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.	

..MEAD.. 05/03/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

31900002 32219974 32509924 32509858 32419803 32219769
31859757 31329796 30749877 30489948 30810015 31440023

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 2, 8:09 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Burnet, Comanche, Coryell and 23 more	96 min
May 2, 9:30 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bowie, Camp, Cass, Collin, Delta, Fannin and 14 more	2 hr
May 2, 9:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bowie, Cass, Morris, Red River, Titus	5 hr
May 2, 11:42 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bowie, Cass, Franklin, Morris, Red River, Titus	93 min
May 3, 12:29 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bowie, Camp, Cass, Collin, Delta, Denton and 16 more	3 hr
May 3, 1:40 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bowie, Camp, Cass, Collin, Cooke, Delta and 20 more	6 hr
May 3, 1:42 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Armstrong, Baylor, Briscoe, Carson, Childress and 33 more	3 hr
May 3, 3:42 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bowie, Camp, Cass, Collin, Cooke, Delta and 18 more	2 hr
May 3, 4:00 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Archer, Armstrong, Baylor, Briscoe, Childress, Clay and 22 more	5 hr
May 3, 6:10 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Armstrong, Baylor, Borden, Briscoe, Brown and 51 more	65 min
May 3, 6:49 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bowie, Camp, Cass, Collin, Cooke, Delta and 18 more	56 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.