Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 702

May 3, 200332 counties in Arkansas; 15 parishes in Louisiana; 18 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 3, 2003, 2:36 AM CDT for 32 counties in Arkansas; 15 parishes in Louisiana; 18 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 24 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 3, 2003, 2:36 AM CDT (07:36 UTC)
Expired
May 3, 2003, 3:00 AM CDT
In force
24 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 65 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Ashley County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Conway County, AR, Cross County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Grant County, AR, Independence County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Perry County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Pope County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Stone County, AR, Union County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Caldwell Parish, LA, Catahoula Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Jackson Parish, LA, LaSalle Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Ouachita Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Winn Parish, LA, Bolivar County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Panola County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 196 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2003-05-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1060 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2003-05-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 59 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1060 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-113 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
968 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
59 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
148 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.3
Supercell composite
4.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

251 
ACUS11 KWNS 030737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030736 
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-030800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0702
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT SAT MAY 03 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN AR / NRN LA...

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217...

VALID 030736Z - 030800Z

CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF WW AREA...AND WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03/08Z.	IT APPEARS ATTM THAT NEW WW WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED ACROSS AR / LA AS OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN LA...WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER NRN AND ERN AR IN
AREA OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 20 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED / MORE SURFACE-BASED SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NRN LA THROUGH MODERATELY-UNSTABLE
AIRMASS.  CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF WW AREA...SO WW WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

N AND E OF WW...MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY-SEVERE
HAIL GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. 
THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS NRN LA WHERE MODERATE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG WITH DEEP-LAYER WINDS WHICH
VEER / INCREASE WITH HEIGHT.  HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION /
LOW-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS AR N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. 
THEREFORE...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
ISOLATED TO PRECLUDE NEW WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 05/03/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

35249327 35839293 35939190 34818979 33738968 32649048
31669163 31599302 33909269

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 2, 9:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 13 more2 hr
May 2, 9:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 15 more5 hr
May 2, 11:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 15 more93 min
May 3, 12:29 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Nevada and 2 more3 hr
May 3, 1:40 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Nevada and 1 more6 hr
May 3, 3:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Nevada and 1 more2 hr
May 3, 6:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Nevada and 1 more56 min
May 3, 4:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLivingston, Orleans, Saint Charles, Saint Helena, Saint John the Baptist, Saint Tammany and 2 more114 min
May 3, 4:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCConcordia, East Baton Rouge, East Carroll, East Feliciana, Franklin, Livingston and 9 more5 hr
May 3, 9:15 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCForrest, George, Greene, Harrison, Jackson, Jones and 3 more6 hr
May 3, 11:24 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGeorge, Greene, Jackson, Perry, Stone2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.