Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 67

February 14, 200319 counties in Kansas; 15 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 14, 2003, 8:26 PM CST for 19 counties in Kansas; 15 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 14, 2003, 8:26 PM CST (02:26 UTC)
Expired
Feb 14, 2003, 10:30 PM CST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 34 counties

Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Elk County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Labette County, KS, Linn County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Miami County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Osage County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Cass County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Polk County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Vernon County, MO

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 2.4 hours before the alert went out and 143 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2003-02-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2003-02-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 221 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
477 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
221 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
303 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

380 
ACUS11 KWNS 150226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150226 
KSZ000-MOZ000-150430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0067
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0826 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS AND NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 2...

VALID 150226Z - 150430Z

TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH EXPIRATION OF
WW 002 AT 03Z.



CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD OUT OF WW 002 AND
INTO NWRN MO.  00Z TOP SOUNDING INDICATED A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ELEVATED AIRMASS WITH A MUCAPE OF 230 J/KG AND A RELATIVELY
STRONG WIND SHEAR PROFILE THROUGH THE BUOYANT LAYER.  CONVECTION
IS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS ERN KS.



FURTHER S...SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SERN KS HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  ALSO...00Z SGF SOUNDING INDICATED ONLY
A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT --SBCAPE OF 780 J/KG-- WITH A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CIN.



THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ELEVATED
TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER MKC FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. 
ELSEWHERE...THE PROBABILITY OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO DIMINISH OVER WW 002 WITH WEAKENING CONVERGENCE AND
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.



THEREFORE...NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AFTER EXPIRATION OF WW 002
AT 03Z.



..MEAD/GOSS.. 02/15/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

37869643 38739643 38719475 38699306 37829306 36959306
36979475 36999643

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 14, 11:09 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherokee, Labette2 hr
Feb 14, 11:20 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCherokee, Labette6 hr
Feb 15, 12:31 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherokee, Labette119 min
Feb 15, 3:15 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherokee, Labette60 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.