Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 64

February 14, 200319 counties in Kansas; 15 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 14, 2003, 5:56 PM CST for 19 counties in Kansas; 15 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 14, 2003, 5:56 PM CST (23:56 UTC)
Expired
Feb 14, 2003, 8:00 PM CST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 34 counties

Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Elk County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Labette County, KS, Linn County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Miami County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Osage County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Cass County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Polk County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Vernon County, MO

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 143 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2003-02-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2003-02-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 154 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
472 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
154 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
257 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

268 
ACUS11 KWNS 142356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142356 
KSZ000-MOZ000-150200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 2...

VALID 142356Z - 150200Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ANY STORMS
THAT CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR.



LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 998 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY
OF CNU WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO CNTRL MO. 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM LOW THROUGH S-CNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK.
 RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ELEVATED CONVECTION TRYING TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED N OF THE WARM FRONT FROM COFFEY COUNTY NEWD
INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY.  RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS TO THE N OF THE WARM FRONT
WITH MUCAPES AOB 300 J/KG.



SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY E OF SURFACE
LOW TRACK OVER FAR SERN KS INTO SWRN MO INVOF ENHANCED PRESSURE
FALLS AND WHERE LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS CURRENTLY RESIDES.  HERE
SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 1000 J/KG WITH HKL PROFILER INDICATING
39 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR.  THUS...IF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION CAN
INITIATE...LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD/GOSS.. 02/14/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

37869643 38739643 38719475 38699306 37829306 36959306
36979475 36999643

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 14, 1:56 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Chase, Chautauqua, Cherokee and 13 more2 hr
Feb 14, 3:35 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Coffey and 13 more5 hr
Feb 14, 3:55 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 15 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.