Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 60

February 14, 200319 counties in Kansas; 7 counties in Missouri; 6 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 14, 2003, 1:56 PM CST for 19 counties in Kansas; 7 counties in Missouri; 6 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 14, 2003, 1:56 PM CST (19:56 UTC)
Expired: Feb 14, 2003, 4:00 PM CST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 32 counties

Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Chase County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Elk County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Labette County, KS, Linn County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Miami County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Dade County, MO, Jasper County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Craig County, OK, Mayes County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 143 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 2Feb 14, 3:35 PM CST

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 156 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 444 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 405 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 381 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

772 
ACUS11 KWNS 141956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141956 
KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-142200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0060
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...SW MO...NE OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141956Z - 142200Z

INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 2
TO 3 HOURS.  AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW.



SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED INTO THE 70S BENEATH LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.  CREST OF RIDGE IS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...SOUTHEAST OF SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/NEAR
HUTCHISON/ ...WHERE AXIS OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTERSECT
LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS...AND ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME UNSTABLE WITH
CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.  REFLECTIVE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION...2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
HAVE BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP SLOWLY NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AS NORTHERN PORTION OF POSITIVELY TILTED SOUTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.



MODELS SUGGEST BAND OF 40 TO 50 KT FLOW EAST OF TROUGH AXIS WILL
SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
BY 15/00Z...CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
FOR  A FEW SUPERCELLS.	LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT JUST NORTH OF
SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CHANUTE KS/SPRINGFIELD MO AREAS. 
HOWEVER DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE A THREAT...ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN WARM SECTOR JUST AHEAD OF
DRY LINE...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF CHANUTE INTO AREAS EAST OF TULSA BY
THE 22/23Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 02/14/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

38199706 38639609 38689468 38209360 37499356 37149430
36949478 36219508 36089607 36569639 37179635

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 14, 3:35 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Coffey and 13 more	5 hr
Feb 14, 3:55 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 15 more	2 hr
Feb 14, 5:56 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Coffey and 13 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.