Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 459

April 15, 200313 counties in Kansas; 8 counties in Oklahoma; 14 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 15, 2003, 12:41 PM CDT for 13 counties in Kansas; 8 counties in Oklahoma; 14 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 15, 2003, 12:41 PM CDT (17:41 UTC)
Expired: Apr 15, 2003, 3:45 PM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 35 counties

Clark County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Meade County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Harper County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Texas County, OK, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Donley County, TX, Foard County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 153 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 118Apr 15, 2:10 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 153 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2381 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 58 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 71 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

505 
ACUS11 KWNS 151741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151741 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-152045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0459
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK...SW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151741Z - 152045Z

WW LIKELY WILL BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.

STRONGER 2-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW PROGRESSING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO.  SURFACE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO
SHARPEN UP NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE DODGE CITY KS
AREA INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE SURFACE-BASED CAPE
OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON.	LEADING
EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING IS ALREADY SUPPORTING
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND
THIS FORCING/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL INTERACT WITH DRY LINE BY
THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME.	BY THIS TIME...ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF DRY LINE...NORTH
OF MID/UPPER JET AXIS...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
BECOMING STRONG AND INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.


..KERR.. 04/15/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

36500166 37860162 38910111 38890033 37559944 35389934
34029973 33460054 34710086 35880121

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 15, 2:10 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney, Ford, Grant and 14 more	5 hr
Apr 15, 3:32 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ford, Kiowa	118 min
Apr 15, 3:45 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Decatur, Ellis, Gove, Graham, Logan, Norton and 10 more	5 hr
Apr 15, 5:55 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ford, Gray and 6 more	65 min
Apr 15, 6:30 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Barber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ford and 16 more	5 hr
Apr 15, 6:57 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Decatur, Graham, Norton, Osborne, Phillips, Rooks and 3 more	93 min
Apr 15, 4:36 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Harmon, Jackson, Tillman	84 min
Apr 15, 5:00 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Comanche, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Kiowa, Tillman	6 hr
Apr 15, 12:12 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bailey, Castro, Cochran, Deaf Smith, Gaines, Hale and 9 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.