Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 265

March 17, 2003Carter County, Jefferson County, Love County, Oklahoma; 20 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 17, 2003, 3:02 PM CST for Carter County, Jefferson County, Love County, Oklahoma; 20 counties in Texas. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 17, 2003, 3:02 PM CST (21:02 UTC)
Expired
Mar 17, 2003, 5:00 PM CST
In force
118 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 23 counties

Carter County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Love County, OK, Archer County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Clay County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Denton County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Montague County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 55 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2003-03-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 365 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2003-03-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 66 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
365 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-231 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
831 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
66 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
82 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

441 
ACUS11 KWNS 172102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172102 
TXZ000-OKZ000-172300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0265
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 47...

VALID 172102Z - 172300Z

DRY LINE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED PAST FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE HEATING AND EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN.  20Z SURFACE
DATA INDICATED BOUNDARY CURVING JUST EAST OF CHILDRESS AND
ABILENE... CONTINUING SOUTHWARD INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  WHILE
STRONGER MID/ UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS SPREAD
FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DAYTIME
HEATING/ CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE...AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME
IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IT...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED INTENSE STORMS.  CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG IS
SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...AND AS MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS... PERHAPS A TORNADO.

..KERR.. 03/17/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

31659842 32079848 32849867 33919870 34479798 34209706
33059665 31799670 31499754

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 16, 8:09 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Greer, Harmon, Jackson3 hr
Mar 17, 11:40 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beaver, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche and 16 more3 hr
Mar 17, 12:45 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland, Coal and 19 more6 hr
Mar 17, 1:55 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlfalfa, Blaine, Custer, Dewey, Garfield, Grant and 10 more5 hr
Mar 17, 2:47 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Blaine, Canadian, Garfield, Grant, Kingfisher and 2 more118 min
Mar 17, 3:24 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Beckham, Carter, Greer, Jackson, Jefferson and 3 more2 hr
Mar 17, 5:50 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland, Coal and 19 more5 hr
Mar 17, 11:17 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bosque, Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis and 19 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.