Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 264

March 17, 200312 counties in Kansas; 8 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 17, 2003, 2:47 PM CST for 12 counties in Kansas; 8 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 17, 2003, 2:47 PM CST (20:47 UTC)
Expired: Mar 17, 2003, 4:45 PM CST
In force: 118 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Barber County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ford County, KS, Harper County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Major County, OK, Woods County, OK

The radar

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 49Mar 17, 5:50 PM CST

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 117 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 336 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -208 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1354 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -11 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 26 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

084 
ACUS11 KWNS 172047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172047 
OKZ000-KSZ000-172245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0264
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S CNTRL KS...WRN/CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 48...

VALID 172047Z - 172245Z

STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
HAS SUPPORTED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRY LINE
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  20Z SURFACE DATA INDICATED DRY
LINE ALONG THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS BORDER...WEST OF GAGE INTO
THE CHILDRESS  AREA...BEFORE CURVING INTO AREAS EAST OF ABILENE.
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH
POST FRONTAL WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 30 KT. 
AS THIS FRONT MERGES WITH DRY LINE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY WEST/NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY INTO
AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE
INTO A SQUALL LINE... WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

..KERR.. 03/17/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

37680004 38140039 38490024 38499893 37849799 36659754
35639749 35069813 35509870 36279899 36619935

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 17, 11:40 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Clark, Comanche	3 hr
Mar 17, 1:55 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Barber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ford and 15 more	5 hr
Mar 17, 3:24 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cheyenne, Finney, Logan, Meade, Scott, Smith	2 hr
Mar 16, 8:09 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beckham, Greer, Harmon, Jackson	3 hr
Mar 17, 12:45 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland, Coal and 19 more	6 hr
Mar 17, 3:02 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Carter, Jefferson, Love	118 min
Mar 17, 5:50 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland, Coal and 19 more	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.