Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 262

March 17, 2003Barber County, Clark County, Comanche County, Kansas; 22 counties in Oklahoma; Wichita County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 17, 2003, 11:40 AM CST for Barber County, Clark County, Comanche County, Kansas; 22 counties in Oklahoma; Wichita County, Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 17, 2003, 11:40 AM CST (17:40 UTC)
Expired: Mar 17, 2003, 2:15 PM CST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 26 counties

Barber County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Beaver County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grady County, OK, Harper County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Major County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Wichita County, TX

The radar

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 153 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 264 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -285 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 965 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 119 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 97 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

347 
ACUS11 KWNS 171740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171740 
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-172015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CST MON MAR 17 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW KS AND WRN/CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171740Z - 172015Z

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON... WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.



EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER JET STREAK IS NOSING ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER.
SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS...AND LEADING EDGE OF
STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY AROUND 21Z.  



MODELS SUGGEST 30 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ALONG
AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY.  DAYTIME HEATING ON
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG FOR SURFACE
PARCELS LIFTED BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. 
THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PROGGED TO BECOME
PARTICULARLY STRONG...HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY  NEAR/NORTH OF ANTICYCLONIC HIGH LEVEL
JET AXIS...NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF GAGE OK.

..KERR.. 03/17/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...AMA...

33789904 34919913 36400007 36740067 37640006 37159810
35759739 33849782

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 17, 1:55 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Barber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ford and 15 more	5 hr
Mar 17, 2:47 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Comanche, Edwards, Ford, Harper, Hodgeman and 6 more	118 min
Mar 17, 3:24 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cheyenne, Finney, Logan, Meade, Scott, Smith	2 hr
Mar 16, 8:09 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beckham, Greer, Harmon, Jackson	3 hr
Mar 17, 12:45 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland, Coal and 19 more	6 hr
Mar 17, 3:02 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Carter, Jefferson, Love	118 min
Mar 17, 5:50 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland, Coal and 19 more	5 hr
Mar 17, 11:17 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Bosque, Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis and 19 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.