Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 1839

July 14, 200343 counties in Minnesota; 6 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 14, 2003, 5:05 PM CDT for 43 counties in Minnesota; 6 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 55 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 14, 2003, 5:05 PM CDT (22:05 UTC)
Expired
Jul 14, 2003, 6:00 PM CDT
In force
55 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 49 counties

Aitkin County, MN, Anoka County, MN, Benton County, MN, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carlton County, MN, Carver County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Cook County, MN, Cottonwood County, MN, Crow Wing County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Lake County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Martin County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Pine County, MN, Pope County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rice County, MN, Saint Louis County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Swift County, MN, Todd County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Washington County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Wright County, MN, Ashland County, WI, Bayfield County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Douglas County, WI, Polk County, WI, Washburn County, WI

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2003-07-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 34 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2003-07-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 94 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
34 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-643 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1461 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
94 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
122 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 142206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142205 
MNZ000-WIZ000-142300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN/WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 142205Z - 142300Z

NEW WWS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM DEEPENING WESTERN ONTARIO SURFACE LOW. 
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW SOUTHWEST OF REDWOOD
FALLS...WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF SPENCER IA INTO
THE DES MOINES AREA.  LATEST VISIBLE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG LOW-LEVEL/JET AXIS NORTH OF
WARM FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH ITSELF...ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.  

TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI/ST.
CROIX RIVERS THIS EVENING...WITH INTENSE BAND OF STORMS SPREADING
EAST OF THE RIVERS INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN DESTABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG.

..KERR.. 07/14/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...

44219578 45409587 46489471 47389345 48099219 48059007
47198973 46219084 45149239 44169322 43549479 43649548

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 13, 9:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBecker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Douglas, Grant and 9 more5 hr
Jul 13, 11:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBecker, Clay, Hubbard, Mahnomen, Norman, Otter Tail and 2 more58 min
Jul 14, 9:58 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnoka, Blue Earth, Brown, Carver, Chisago, Cottonwood and 32 more62 min
Jul 14, 1:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJackson, Murray, Nobles, Pipestone, Rock113 min
Jul 14, 2:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBecker, Beltrami, Clearwater, Hubbard, Itasca, Kittson and 9 more65 min
Jul 14, 2:35 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBeltrami, Cass, Clearwater, Hubbard, Itasca, Kittson and 9 more5 hr
Jul 14, 3:45 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBlue Earth, Cottonwood, Jackson, Martin, Murray, Nobles and 3 more6 hr
Jul 14, 3:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeltrami, Cass, Clearwater, Hubbard, Itasca, Kittson and 9 more85 min
Jul 14, 3:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Benton, Big Stone, Crow Wing, Douglas, Grant and 9 more2 hr
Jul 14, 5:25 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAitkin, Anoka, Benton, Brown, Carlton, Carver and 36 more5 hr
Jul 14, 5:35 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCook, Lake, Saint Louis4 hr
Jul 14, 5:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCItasca2 hr
Jul 14, 6:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlue Earth, Brown, Jackson, Martin, Nicollet, Watonwan116 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.