Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003

Flash Flood Warning 75, NWS San Angelo, TX

September 14, 2003Mason County, San Saba County, Texas

NWS San Angelo, TX issued this flash flood warning at Sep 14, 2003, 10:45 AM CDT for Mason County, San Saba County, Texas. It was in force for 4 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 14, 2003, 10:45 AM CDT (15:45 UTC)
Expired: Sep 14, 2003, 3:00 PM CDT
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: NWS San Angelo, TX
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Mason County, TX, San Saba County, TX

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 3.8 hours before the alert went out and 252 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 939 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 56 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 189 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS54 KSJT 141553
FFWSJT
TXC319-411-142000-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1045 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SAN SABA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
  MASON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 1040 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS CONTINUED 
  OVER MUCH OF MASON AND SAN SABA COUNTIES. IN ADDITION NUMEROUS     
  REPORTS OF FLOODING HAVE COME IN FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF SAN SABA 
  COUNTY.

* SOME LOCATION INCLUDED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING ARE...   
   RICHLAND SPRINGS 
   ALGERITA
   SKEETERVILLE
   ELM GROVE     
   CHAPPEL 
   SAN SABA 
   MASON
   STREETER AND LOYAL VALLEY

* RAINFALL TOTALING 2 TO 6 INCHES HAS FALLEN OVER WESTERN SAN SABA   
  COUNTY AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER MASON COUNTY...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL   
  UP TO 2 INCHES CAN EXPECTED THROUGH 1 PM CDT. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN    
  WILL END ACROSS THE WARNED AREA BEFORE 3 PM. ROADS WILL REMAIN     
  WATER COVERED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

TURN AROUND DONT DROWN DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS
THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.
REMEMBER...MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 3091 9945 3051 9946 3053 9899 3094 9846
          3182 9767 3146 9888 3145 9907 3091 9908

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 14, 3:00 AM CDT, 7 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 14, 3:00 AM CDT, 7 hours 45 minutes before

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
300 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2003

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS
SLOWED CONSIDERABLY SINCE ENTERING THE CWA. BEST ONGOING ACTIVITY IS
ALONG WESTERN FLANK WEST OF THE CWA AND GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT OF
STORMS RADAR ESTIMATES FOR RAINFALL HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE SHOWING
ISOLATED 4 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS WEST OF THE CWA. COLD FRONT NOW
ESSENTIALLY BISECTS THE CWA AND IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF SJT WITH
GOOD DEVELOPMENT NOW ONGOING NORTH OF SJT. FRONT IS FCSTD TO SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH AND SHOULD BE NEAR I10 BY DAYBREAK WITH AREAL COVERAGE
OF RAINFALL INCREASING AS MCS EXPANDS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A
GOOD POST FRONTAL RAIN EVENT FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS ARE IN TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. ETA HAS
BEST LIFT ABOUT 6 HRS EARLIER THAN AVN...AVN SHOWING BEST LIFT
AROUND NOON. AS TO AMOUNTS... ETA HAS A 1 INCH BULLSEYE OVER THE
CONCHO VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK WHILE AVN IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH A
NEARLY 3 INCH BULLSEYE OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY AROUND NOON. IN ANY
EVENT WILL RAISE POPS FOR TODAY WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS EVENING.

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH MOST OF THE COMING WEEK. COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BRING AFTERNOON TEMPS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS...
ABI 074/056/083/061 2100
SJT 075/056/083/060 5100
JCT 077/058/084/060 72-0

.SJT...NONE.

15

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 14, 5:30 AM CDT, 5 hours 15 minutes before

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-151030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
530 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE THIS
MORNING KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA INTO LATE AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

15

The office that day

Everything else NWS San Angelo, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 14, 8:07 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	McCulloch, Mason, San Saba	3 hr
Sep 14, 8:55 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Crockett	2 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2003 Every flash flood warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.