Flash Flood Warning 73, NWS San Angelo, TX

000 
WGUS74 KSJT 141515
FFSSJT
TXC307-319-411-141600-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1010 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MCCULLOCH...SAN SABA 
AND MASON COUNTY UNTIL 1100 AM CDT...

AT 1005 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN 
HAVE FALLEN OVER THE WARNED AREA SINCE 800 AM...WITH ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED BY 1100 AM CDT. THIS WILL 
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND POOR 
DRAINAGE AREAS. AS OF 1000 AM...NUMEROUS ROADS ACROSS EASTERN 
MCCULLOCH AND WESTERN SAN SABA COUNTIES ARE FLOODED AT THIS TIME. 
PLEASE DO NOT TRY GO AROUND BARRICADES.

IN ADDITION THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE 
EXTENDED FOR SAN SABA AND MASON COUNTIES.

MOST DEATHS IN FLASH FLOODING OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT.

$$

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
300 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2003

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS
SLOWED CONSIDERABLY SINCE ENTERING THE CWA. BEST ONGOING ACTIVITY IS
ALONG WESTERN FLANK WEST OF THE CWA AND GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT OF
STORMS RADAR ESTIMATES FOR RAINFALL HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE SHOWING
ISOLATED 4 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS WEST OF THE CWA. COLD FRONT NOW
ESSENTIALLY BISECTS THE CWA AND IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF SJT WITH
GOOD DEVELOPMENT NOW ONGOING NORTH OF SJT. FRONT IS FCSTD TO SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH AND SHOULD BE NEAR I10 BY DAYBREAK WITH AREAL COVERAGE
OF RAINFALL INCREASING AS MCS EXPANDS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A
GOOD POST FRONTAL RAIN EVENT FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS ARE IN TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. ETA HAS
BEST LIFT ABOUT 6 HRS EARLIER THAN AVN...AVN SHOWING BEST LIFT
AROUND NOON. AS TO AMOUNTS... ETA HAS A 1 INCH BULLSEYE OVER THE
CONCHO VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK WHILE AVN IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH A
NEARLY 3 INCH BULLSEYE OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY AROUND NOON. IN ANY
EVENT WILL RAISE POPS FOR TODAY WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS EVENING.

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH MOST OF THE COMING WEEK. COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BRING AFTERNOON TEMPS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS...
ABI 074/056/083/061 2100
SJT 075/056/083/060 5100
JCT 077/058/084/060 72-0

.SJT...NONE.

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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-151030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
530 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE THIS
MORNING KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA INTO LATE AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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