Severe Thunderstorm Warning 305, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
330 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

.DISCUSSION...
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WAS SPINNING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI.  AT THE SURFACE...WEAK BOUNDARIES WERE LEFT OVER FROM
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  THESE FEATURES INTERACTED
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A WARSAW...TO ANDERSON
LINE.  ONE OF THESE STORMS AFFECTED THE SPRINGFIELD METRO
AREA...CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING.  THIS IS NOT SURPRISING...AS THE
12Z KSGF SOUNDING SHOWED PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES.  IN
ADDITION...THE MOVEMENT OF STORMS WAS QUITE SLOW...AS THE STEERING
FLOW WAS VERY WEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WILL GO WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR TONIGHT FOR
GENERALLY THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
CURRENTLY THERE ARE A FEW ECHOES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...HOWEVER THE
SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAD ALREADY PASSED
THROUGH THAT AREA.  TO THE EAST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  LAPS CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS 2000
TO 2500 J/KG VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE OZARKS.  THIS INSTABILITY AND
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRIGGER STORMS
MAINLY BEFORE SUNSET.  WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR...THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED MARGINAL HAIL
AND/OR WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS.

WILL CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (AROUND 50 PERCENT) FOUND ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES NORTHWEST OF A
JOPLIN TO WARSAW LINE.  THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY...WHILE SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL INTERACT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  CONDITIONS LOOK
TO BE SIMILAR TODAY...EXCEPT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. REMOVED POPS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE EFFECTS OF BILL LOOK TO BE EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...
DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD RIDGING AT 500 MB MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S...AS THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL
RESIDE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  KEPT THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
DRY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL STAY WELL
NORTH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS.  HEAT AND
HUMIDITY LOOK TO INCREASE WITH THIS PATTERN...AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 20 DEG C BY FRIDAY.  HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN...AS DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.SGF...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

SAW

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING:

  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 60 MPH....AND HAIL
  UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE STRETCHING
  FROM OSAGE BEACH...THROUGH BOLIVAR...TO JOPLIN.

  DISCUSSION:

  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES
  WILL INTERACT WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
  THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL.  HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 60
  MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL
  INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE OZARKS...
  BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...MAINLY
  FROM MID MISSOURI SOUTH TO THE ARKANSAS BORDER. THE BEST CHANCE
  FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALTHOUGH THEY
  COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
  MAIN THREAT.

  HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS HEAT
  INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S FRIDAY AND
  SATURDAY.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN
  MISSOURI MAY EVEN REACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT MAY OCCUR
  WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
  THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

SAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1230 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1205 PM    1 ESE MARSHFIELD          MO   .75 INCH HAIL
06/30/03   WEBSTER                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

CRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
259 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0250 PM    SPRINGFIELD               MO   FLOOD
06/30/03   GREENE                         STREET FLOODING
                                          OCCURING ACROSS CITY.
                                          SOME STREETS HAVE WATER
                                          2 TO 3 FEET DEEP.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
329 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0325 PM    SPRINGFIELD               MO   1 INCH HAIL
06/30/03   GREENE                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.