Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Blacksburg, VA

July 6, 2003Buckingham County, Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 6, 2003, 5:59 PM EDT for Buckingham County, Virginia. It was in force for 31 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 6, 2003, 5:59 PM EDT (21:59 UTC)
Expired: Jul 6, 2003, 6:30 PM EDT
In force: 31 min
Issued by: NWS Blacksburg, VA
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Buckingham County, VA

The radar

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 108 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 602 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -66 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 723 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 13 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 96 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

174 
WUUS51 KRNK 062159
SVRRNK
VAC029-062230-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
559 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN BUCKINGHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT.

* AT 559 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BREMO BLUFF...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS THREATENED THROUGH 630 PM EDT INCLUDE
  BREMO BLUFF...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 60 MILES
AN HOUR.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LARGE HAIL AND/OR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH
OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF POSSIBLE.

RELAY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

LAT...LON 3765 7866 3738 7847 3768 7803 3786 7821

$$

09

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 6, 2:05 PM EDT, 3 hours 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 6, 2:05 PM EDT, 3 hours 54 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

RADAR AGAIN SHOWING CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA ESPCLY ACROSS THE W IN
ADVANCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME PER VAPOR LOOP AND WEAK UPPER S/W.
EXPECT THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LEE TROF AND GOOD INSTAB/MOISTURE
CNVRGNC PER MSAS TO KEEP DECENT POPS GOING THIS EVENING...THEN
LINGERING A BIT OVERNIGHT GIVEN DEEPER RH COLUMN THAN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS. OTRW WILL CALL IT GNRLY PC AS CU FADES SOME WITH LOSS OF
HEATING OUTSIDE RESIDUAL SHRA LATER. TEMPS SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
WITH BASIC RANGE OF 65-70 ON TRACK.

MON-TUE...APPEARS SOME DRYING FINALLY IN STORE BY TUE AS INIT SRN
S/W PASSES MON AND UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS WESTWARD ALLOWING A DRIER
W/NW TRAJ ALOFT TO ADVECT IN. POPS A BIT IFFY MON IN WAKE OF IMPULSE
BUT THINK ENOUGH BLYR RH TO KEEP CHCY POPS GOING ESPCLY SRN TIER
CLOSER TO DEEPER RH AND WEAK UVV. APPEARS ENOUGH MIXING/DOWNSLOPE TO
BREAK OUT OF EARLY CLOUDS/MORNING SHRA TO PC WITH TEMPS CLOSE IF NOT
ABOVE THOSE OF TDY. QUESTS MON NGT/TUE WITH HOW MUCH DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE AS ETA HAS LINGERING RH WHILE GFS DRIVES A STRONGER S/W
SE TAKING DEEP RH AWAY. SINCE HAVE SLGT CHCS GOING AND WET
BLYR...THINK BEST TO STAY WITH SOME POPS ESPCLY GIVEN GFS FEEDBACK
OF LATE. PROBABLY ENOUGH DRYING TO PUSH TEMPS IN THE 90S E TUE UNDER
DOWNSLOPE BUT WILL HOLD BELOW HOT MAV VALUES FOR NOW.

EXTENDED...SE PROGRESSION OF MAIN NRN STREAM TROF THE BASIC ISSUE BY
WEEKS END WITH TIMING OF SUBSEQUENT WAVES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN
QUESTION. EXPECT WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE N AND AT LEAST WEAK IMPULSES TO
BRING MOISTURE BACK BY WED SO WILL KEEP LOW CHCS GOING TUE
NGT...THEN INCREASING WED PER SOME MCS THREAT. NEW GFS NOW
SUGGESTING A TREND SIMILAR TO PAST CANADIAN SOLNS WITH FROPA HOLDING
OFF TIL THU NGT/FRI ASSOCD WITH STRONG DIGGING 5H TROF FOR JULY.
THUS GIVEN SOME FCST SLOWING WILL CONT CHCY POPS THU AND SLOWLY
TAPER THU NGT WITH DRIER/SOMEWHAT COOLER WX FOR FRI-SUNDAY.
JH/JDS

FCSTID =    9
ROA   71  88  71  95 /  40  30  20  20
LYH   69  88  69  94 /  40  40  30  10
DAN   70  90  72  95 /  40  40  30  10
BLF   66  82  64  86 /  40  30  20  30
LWB   63  82  63  86 /  50  30  20  30
BCB   63  84  63  86 /  50  30  20  20
TNB   64  80  64  84 /  40  40  20  30

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 6, 6:30 AM EDT, 11 hours 29 minutes before

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-070000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
630 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 FROM DANVILLE AND POINTS
EAST.   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAY
BRIEFLY PULSE TO SEVERE LEVELS...BUT ANY DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED AND IN THE FORM OF WIND DAMAGE.  ISOLATED RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...THE RESULT WILL BE PONDING OF WATER
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES IN AND AROUND THE LARGER URBAN
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.  AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED BURSTS OF STRONG WIND AND RAIN...RESULTING IN WIND
DAMAGE OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 6, 3:34 PM EDT, 2 hours 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 06 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0200 PM    PATRICK SPRINGS           VA   60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/06/03   PATRICK                        NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY PATRICK
                                          SHERIFFS OFFICE.

0305 PM    3S ROCKY MOUNT            VA   60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/06/03   FRANKLIN                       A FEW TREES DOWN.REPORTED
                                          BY FRANKLIN SHERIFFS
                                          OFFICE.

Local storm report, Jul 6, 5:01 PM EDT, 58 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
501 PM EDT SUN JUL 06 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0455 PM    CHRISTIANSBURG            VA   0.88 IN HAIL
07/06/03   MONTGOMERY                     PUBLIC REPORT.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 6, 1:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Patrick	30 min
Jul 6, 2:47 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Franklin	43 min
Jul 6, 3:49 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RNK	Tazewell	3 hr
Jul 6, 4:14 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RNK	Bland, Wythe	3 hr
Jul 6, 4:39 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Amherst	51 min
Jul 6, 4:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Montgomery, City of Radford	59 min
Jul 6, 4:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Buckingham	42 min
Jul 6, 5:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Buckingham	30 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Virginia, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.