Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

RADAR AGAIN SHOWING CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA ESPCLY ACROSS THE W IN
ADVANCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME PER VAPOR LOOP AND WEAK UPPER S/W.
EXPECT THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LEE TROF AND GOOD INSTAB/MOISTURE
CNVRGNC PER MSAS TO KEEP DECENT POPS GOING THIS EVENING...THEN
LINGERING A BIT OVERNIGHT GIVEN DEEPER RH COLUMN THAN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS. OTRW WILL CALL IT GNRLY PC AS CU FADES SOME WITH LOSS OF
HEATING OUTSIDE RESIDUAL SHRA LATER. TEMPS SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
WITH BASIC RANGE OF 65-70 ON TRACK.

MON-TUE...APPEARS SOME DRYING FINALLY IN STORE BY TUE AS INIT SRN
S/W PASSES MON AND UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS WESTWARD ALLOWING A DRIER
W/NW TRAJ ALOFT TO ADVECT IN. POPS A BIT IFFY MON IN WAKE OF IMPULSE
BUT THINK ENOUGH BLYR RH TO KEEP CHCY POPS GOING ESPCLY SRN TIER
CLOSER TO DEEPER RH AND WEAK UVV. APPEARS ENOUGH MIXING/DOWNSLOPE TO
BREAK OUT OF EARLY CLOUDS/MORNING SHRA TO PC WITH TEMPS CLOSE IF NOT
ABOVE THOSE OF TDY. QUESTS MON NGT/TUE WITH HOW MUCH DRYING WILL
TAKE PLACE AS ETA HAS LINGERING RH WHILE GFS DRIVES A STRONGER S/W
SE TAKING DEEP RH AWAY. SINCE HAVE SLGT CHCS GOING AND WET
BLYR...THINK BEST TO STAY WITH SOME POPS ESPCLY GIVEN GFS FEEDBACK
OF LATE. PROBABLY ENOUGH DRYING TO PUSH TEMPS IN THE 90S E TUE UNDER
DOWNSLOPE BUT WILL HOLD BELOW HOT MAV VALUES FOR NOW.

EXTENDED...SE PROGRESSION OF MAIN NRN STREAM TROF THE BASIC ISSUE BY
WEEKS END WITH TIMING OF SUBSEQUENT WAVES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN
QUESTION. EXPECT WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE N AND AT LEAST WEAK IMPULSES TO
BRING MOISTURE BACK BY WED SO WILL KEEP LOW CHCS GOING TUE
NGT...THEN INCREASING WED PER SOME MCS THREAT. NEW GFS NOW
SUGGESTING A TREND SIMILAR TO PAST CANADIAN SOLNS WITH FROPA HOLDING
OFF TIL THU NGT/FRI ASSOCD WITH STRONG DIGGING 5H TROF FOR JULY.
THUS GIVEN SOME FCST SLOWING WILL CONT CHCY POPS THU AND SLOWLY
TAPER THU NGT WITH DRIER/SOMEWHAT COOLER WX FOR FRI-SUNDAY.
JH/JDS

FCSTID =    9
ROA   71  88  71  95 /  40  30  20  20
LYH   69  88  69  94 /  40  40  30  10
DAN   70  90  72  95 /  40  40  30  10
BLF   66  82  64  86 /  40  30  20  30
LWB   63  82  63  86 /  50  30  20  30
BCB   63  84  63  86 /  50  30  20  20
TNB   64  80  64  84 /  40  40  20  30

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-070000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
630 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 FROM DANVILLE AND POINTS
EAST.   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAY
BRIEFLY PULSE TO SEVERE LEVELS...BUT ANY DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED AND IN THE FORM OF WIND DAMAGE.  ISOLATED RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...THE RESULT WILL BE PONDING OF WATER
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES IN AND AROUND THE LARGER URBAN
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.  AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED BURSTS OF STRONG WIND AND RAIN...RESULTING IN WIND
DAMAGE OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 06 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0200 PM    PATRICK SPRINGS           VA   60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/06/03   PATRICK                        NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY PATRICK
                                          SHERIFFS OFFICE.

0305 PM    3S ROCKY MOUNT            VA   60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/06/03   FRANKLIN                       A FEW TREES DOWN.REPORTED
                                          BY FRANKLIN SHERIFFS
                                          OFFICE.