Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z IN THE WEST...AND
UNTIL 03Z FOR MOST EASTERN ZONES.  ABRUPT CLEARING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT AS DRYING ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION BEHIND EXITING UPPER TROUGH. SAME FEATURES WILL BE IN FIRM
CONTROL OF THE STATES WEATHER ON SUNDAY. THEN ON MONDAY UPPER FLOW
COMES WESTERLY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE.  INCREASING
MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OUT OF GULF.

DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GFS/ETA BEGIN HERE. LIFT ASSOCIATED ALONG
CONVERGENCE OF 850 LOW AND TROUGH. ETA FARTHER N WITH 850 LOW OVER
CENTRAL NC WHILE GFS KEEPS LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP 30% POPS
OVER ENTIRE CWA ON TUESDAY. THEN CONTINUE 30% POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
OVER EASTERN 2/3 WITH 20% OVER THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
MOVES TO NEAR ILM/MYRTLE AREA. WITH LOW OFF THE COAST...WEAK RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. AVN DRIES THINGS OUT A BIT...AND THUS REMOVE
POPS. NEXT TROUGH QUICKLY APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL BECOMES SOUTHERLY
AGAIN.

...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES...WILL FOCUS ON
LARGE SCALE FEATURES.  A COMMON SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE
SE U.S. AS BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SCATTERED AFT CONVECTION SEEMS A SURE BET WITH DEEP SW FLOW...
MOIST CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE BL AND UNSETTLED SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 85 (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S) WITH
NIGHT TIME TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.RAH...TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 800 PM.

BL

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-311045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TRIAD AREA BY MID MORNING AND SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS...ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROANOKE RAPIDS...NASHVILLE...CLAYTON...
LILLINGTON...TO FAYETTEVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS
MORNING...THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

RA

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-010118-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1219 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MARYLAND-
DELAWARE REGION BY EARLY TONIGHT WILL PUSH A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DEVELOP
AND MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WINDS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT COMING FROM DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY WITH THESE STORMS.

THE THREAT APPEARS GREATEST IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AFTER 2 PM AND
IS FORECAST TO SPREAD TO THE EAST TOWARD SUNSET. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AFTER 5 PM AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE WADESBORO ALBEMARLE AREA
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOWER THAN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS
BUT IS NOT ZERO.

SKYWARN SPOTTERS...
SKYWARN NETWORK ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT AFTER 3 PM AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD
TAKE NOTE OF THIS HEIGHTENED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS.
MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS ONLY FORECAST FOR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT ONCE EVERY TWO YEARS. STAY CONNECTED TO THE LOCAL MEDIA OR
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO THROUGHOUT TODAY AND THIS EVENING UNTIL
THE THREAT PASSES. BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTIONS IF
WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED OR IF SEVERE WEATHER IS SPOTTED IN
YOUR AREA.

RLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
103 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1250 PM    CAMERON                   NC   .75 INCH HAIL
05/31/03   MOORE

NCZ038>040-073>075-083-084-312100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
358 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS RICHMOND...DAVIDSON...
RANDOLPH...CHATHAM...MOORE...MONTGOMERY...STANLY AND ANSON COUNTIES
THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 358 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NORTHEAST OF CHARLOTTE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PLYLER...NORWOOD...
MOUNT GILEAD...COVINGTON...NORMAN...DERBY.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING DIME
SIZED HAIL OR LARGER AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. DO
NOT USE THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS AUTOMOBILES CAN PROVIDE ADEQUATE SHELTER.

DGS