Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Raleigh, NC
NWS Raleigh, NC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 31, 2003, 3:31 PM EDT for Scotland County, North Carolina. It was in force for 14 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 31, 2003, 3:31 PM EDT (19:31 UTC)
- Expired
- May 31, 2003, 3:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 14 min
- Issued by
- NWS Raleigh, NC
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Scotland County, NC
The radar
The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2:55 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | 5 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 153 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1484 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 40 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 157 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 166 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
451 WUUS52 KRAH 311931 SVRRAH NCC165-311945- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 331 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN SCOTLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA * UNTIL 345 PM EDT * AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER EAST LAURINBURG...OR ABOUT OVER LAURINBURG...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. DIME SIZED HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. TAKE COVER IN A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. LAT...LON 3488 7949 3470 7952 3464 7905 3484 7902 $$ DGS
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 31, 2:29 PM EDT, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 31, 2:29 PM EDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 230 PM AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003 WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z IN THE WEST...AND UNTIL 03Z FOR MOST EASTERN ZONES. ABRUPT CLEARING WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS DRYING ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND EXITING UPPER TROUGH. SAME FEATURES WILL BE IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE STATES WEATHER ON SUNDAY. THEN ON MONDAY UPPER FLOW COMES WESTERLY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE. INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OUT OF GULF. DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GFS/ETA BEGIN HERE. LIFT ASSOCIATED ALONG CONVERGENCE OF 850 LOW AND TROUGH. ETA FARTHER N WITH 850 LOW OVER CENTRAL NC WHILE GFS KEEPS LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP 30% POPS OVER ENTIRE CWA ON TUESDAY. THEN CONTINUE 30% POPS TUESDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN 2/3 WITH 20% OVER THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW MOVES TO NEAR ILM/MYRTLE AREA. WITH LOW OFF THE COAST...WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. AVN DRIES THINGS OUT A BIT...AND THUS REMOVE POPS. NEXT TROUGH QUICKLY APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL BECOMES SOUTHERLY AGAIN. ...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES...WILL FOCUS ON LARGE SCALE FEATURES. A COMMON SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE SE U.S. AS BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC. SCATTERED AFT CONVECTION SEEMS A SURE BET WITH DEEP SW FLOW... MOIST CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE BL AND UNSETTLED SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 85 (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S) WITH NIGHT TIME TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. .RAH...TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 800 PM. BL
Hazardous weather outlook, May 31, 5:00 AM EDT, 10 hours 31 minutes before
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-311045- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 500 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TRIAD AREA BY MID MORNING AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS...ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROANOKE RAPIDS...NASHVILLE...CLAYTON... LILLINGTON...TO FAYETTEVILLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING...THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. RA
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 31, 12:19 PM EDT, 3 hours 12 minutes before
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-010118- SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1219 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003 ...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... .SYNOPTIC PATTERN... STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MARYLAND- DELAWARE REGION BY EARLY TONIGHT WILL PUSH A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT COMING FROM DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH THESE STORMS. THE THREAT APPEARS GREATEST IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AFTER 2 PM AND IS FORECAST TO SPREAD TO THE EAST TOWARD SUNSET. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AFTER 5 PM AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE WADESBORO ALBEMARLE AREA POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOWER THAN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS BUT IS NOT ZERO. SKYWARN SPOTTERS... SKYWARN NETWORK ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AFTER 3 PM AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EMERGENCY OFFICIALS AND RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD TAKE NOTE OF THIS HEIGHTENED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS. MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS ONLY FORECAST FOR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT ONCE EVERY TWO YEARS. STAY CONNECTED TO THE LOCAL MEDIA OR MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO THROUGHOUT TODAY AND THIS EVENING UNTIL THE THREAT PASSES. BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTIONS IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED OR IF SEVERE WEATHER IS SPOTTED IN YOUR AREA. RLH
Local storm report, May 31, 1:03 PM EDT, 2 hours 28 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
103 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003
TIME(EDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
1250 PM CAMERON NC .75 INCH HAIL
05/31/03 MOOREThe office that day
Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 12:41 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Harnett, Moore | 34 min |
| May 31, 1:09 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Lee | 21 min |
| May 31, 1:55 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Anson | 50 min |
| May 31, 2:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Harnett | 34 min |
| May 31, 4:22 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Anson | 53 min |
| May 31, 4:32 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RAH | Anson | 43 min |
| May 31, 5:03 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Guilford | 27 min |
| May 31, 5:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Alamance, Chatham | 41 min |
| May 31, 5:51 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RAH | Chatham | 39 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.