Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1045 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2003

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED TO EASTERN TIER OF COUNTY
WARNING AREA WHERE IT SHOULD STALL FOR DURATION OF AFTERNOON. BEST
INSTABILITIES ARE ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND
PRINCIPAL THREAT FROM TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN CELLS SHOULD BE MAINLY
EAST OF COUNTY WARNING AREA. DRYING ALOFT COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY
GAINED FROM SOLAR HEATING AND WEAK RIPPLES OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
TRACKING CLOSE BY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SINCE ANALYSIS OF STANDARD
LEVELS SHOWS STRONGER WINDS EXITING CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...THE
PRINCIPAL THREAT OF SEVERE WOULD BE HAIL/DOWNBURSTS MAINLY IN THE
VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY (CENTRAL TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CWA).

.UPDATE...FOR REMOVING WORDING REFERENCE TO MORNING AND TWEAKING OF
POPS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.RAH...NONE.

KK

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-261105-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
507 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
ROCKINGHAM TO THE TRIABLE AND KERR LAKE EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. THE BEST TIME
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED FLOODING
RESULTING FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY COULD
RESULT IN FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA BOTH DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

JO

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-262000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1145 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT
THE SANDHILLS AND THE COASTAL PLAIN.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
FROM DOWNBURSTS. THE BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD OCCUR FROM ROCKINGHAM TO THE TRIANGLE AND KERR LAKE
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

SKYWARN SPOTTERS...
NETWORK ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

PERSONS PLANNING ON OUTDOOR ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY IN
TOUCH WITH THE FORECAST AND KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY FOR DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS. REMEMBER AS SOON AS THUNDER IS HEARD OR LIGHTNING IS
SEEN...SEEK SHELTER BY MOVING INDOORS. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE
YOUR CAR WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

KK