Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
205 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2003

.TONIGHT-THURSDAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
LOCATED EAST IN COASTAL PLAIN. NO POPS TONIGHT OTHER THAN SMALL
CHANCE EASTERN TIER THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY STAYS NEAR SAME VICINITY
TUE AS GOOD SHOT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES INTO AREA FROM THE
WEST. COOLING ALOFT...STEEPER LAPSE RATES...BETTER SHEAR LENDS TO
MORE INSTABILITY AND SPCS SLIGHT RISK ACCEPTED. WILL CARY 50% POPS
NORTHERN AND 40% POPS SOUTHERN TIERS FOR TUESDAY. YET A THIRD SHOT
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS SEEN FOR THURSDAY.
STRENGTH OF IMPULSE QUESTIONABLE AND GFSS DISPLAY OF IMPULSE
SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER ALL MODELS
SHOW IMPULSE. THE POPS THURSDAY ARE LIMITED TO CHANCE. THE DAYTIME
HIGHS TUESDAY AND THURSDAY STAY A BIT BELOW NORM (81 DEGREES RDU)
GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL ALSO BE BELOW
NORMAL (MID - UPPER 50S).

.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. REMAINS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
AMPLITUDE OVER REGION. THIS TRANSLATES TO A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS AVERAGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WITH
SYSTEM EXITING REGION LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI...EXPECT DRY WEATHER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  IMPULSE IN PREDOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM PROGGED
TO AFFECT REGION SUN. SOME QUESTION AS TO MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
SYSTEM SO WILL KEEP POPS AT SMALL CHANCE.  AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN THE
MS VALLEY MON SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS OVER
CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW...KEPT HIGHS MON 3-5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.-WSS

.RAH...NONE.

KK

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-261105-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
507 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
ROCKINGHAM TO THE TRIABLE AND KERR LAKE EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. THE BEST TIME
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED FLOODING
RESULTING FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY COULD
RESULT IN FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA BOTH DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

JO