Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Paducah, KY

May 15, 2003Daviess County, Kentucky

NWS Paducah, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 15, 2003, 12:28 PM CDT for Daviess County, Kentucky. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 15, 2003, 12:28 PM CDT (17:28 UTC)
Expired: May 15, 2003, 1:15 PM CDT
In force: 47 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Daviess County, KY

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 15, 10:15 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 183 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 663 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -15 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 607 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 30 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 65 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 15, 1:42 AM CDT, 10 hours 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 15, 1:42 AM CDT, 10 hours 46 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
142 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS THE PERIODIC CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS A RESULT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
EXPECT THE SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS EVERYWHERE TODAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES (50)
OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS. STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>6.25
C/KM) WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE SECTIONS ALSO. FEEL THAT BEST CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW WILL BE MAINLY THIS MORNING AS AXIS OF UPPER TROF AND
VORT MAX WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. AREA
SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT WITH FRONT TO THE SOUTH.

WILL REINTRODUCE POPS (RW/TRW) ON FRIDAY AS A VIGOROUS SYSTEM LIFTS
EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BACK UP TO THE MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDERS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GOOD OVERRUNNING SCENARIO THAT
DUE TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ETA/GFS/NGM SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH GFS BEING MOST AGGRESSIVE...SO WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE
ON TIMING OF THE RETURN OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY. SHOWALTER INDICES
REMAIN AT OR BELOW ZERO SO WILL EXPECT ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY.
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES BEYOND FIFTH PERIOD.

.PAH...NONE.

JAP

Hazardous weather outlook, May 15, 4:26 AM CDT, 8 hours 2 minutes before

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-161000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
426 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
QUAD STATE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM TODAY. DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY EXCEPT MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

JAP

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 15, 9:55 AM CDT, 2 hours 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
955 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0925 AM    MT. ERIE                  IL   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   WAYNE

Local storm report, May 15, 9:59 AM CDT, 2 hours 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
959 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0951 AM    ALBION                    IL   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   EDWARDS

Local storm report, May 15, 10:47 AM CDT, 1 hour 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1047 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1030 AM    SANTA CLAUS               IN   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   SPENCER

Local storm report, May 15, 10:58 AM CDT, 1 hour 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1058 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1045 AM    JOHNSON                   IN   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   GIBSON                         REPORTED BY SPOTTER

Local storm report, May 15, 11:31 AM CDT, 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1131 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1115 AM    CHANDLER                  IN   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   WARRICK                        REPORTED THROUGH
                                          ESPOTTER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 15, 12:36 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Union	24 min
May 15, 6:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Todd	30 min
May 14, 10:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Jackson, Perry	51 min
May 15, 9:33 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Edwards	32 min
May 15, 9:51 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Wabash	34 min
May 14, 9:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Perry	48 min
May 14, 9:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Carter, Wayne	47 min
May 14, 10:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Butler, Wayne	49 min
May 14, 10:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Stoddard	45 min
May 15, 12:43 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Bollinger	32 min
May 15, 1:15 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Stoddard	30 min
May 15, 2:07 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Mississippi	23 min
May 15, 2:30 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Mississippi	30 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.