Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
142 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS THE PERIODIC CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS A RESULT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
EXPECT THE SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS EVERYWHERE TODAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES (50)
OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS. STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>6.25
C/KM) WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE SECTIONS ALSO. FEEL THAT BEST CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW WILL BE MAINLY THIS MORNING AS AXIS OF UPPER TROF AND
VORT MAX WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. AREA
SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT WITH FRONT TO THE SOUTH.

WILL REINTRODUCE POPS (RW/TRW) ON FRIDAY AS A VIGOROUS SYSTEM LIFTS
EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BACK UP TO THE MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDERS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GOOD OVERRUNNING SCENARIO THAT
DUE TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ETA/GFS/NGM SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH GFS BEING MOST AGGRESSIVE...SO WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE
ON TIMING OF THE RETURN OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY. SHOWALTER INDICES
REMAIN AT OR BELOW ZERO SO WILL EXPECT ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY.
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES BEYOND FIFTH PERIOD.

.PAH...NONE.

JAP

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-151000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
828 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND ALL OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MAIN HAZARD FROM ANY
SEVERE STORMS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND
THEN AGAIN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF PIEDMONT MISSOURI TO PADUCAH
KENTUCKY TO MARION KENTUCKY TO MOUNT CARMEL ILLINOIS LINE...SHOULD
BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS FROM STORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO YOUR AREA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW AS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP
ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

DFS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1001 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0952 PM    2E PIEDMONT               MO   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/14/03   WAYNE                          RELAYED BY ESPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1111 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1109 PM    1E DUDLEY                 MO   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/14/03   STODDARD                       REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1118 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1113 PM    DEXTER                    MO   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/14/03   STODDARD                       REPORTED BY POLICE

1114 PM    2SW DEXTER                MO   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/14/03   STODDARD                       REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER...AND RELAYED
                                          THROUGH LAW ENFORCEMENT

1115 PM    3SW DEXTER                MO   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/14/03   STODDARD                       REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER...RELAYED THROUGH
                                          LAW ENFORCEMENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
222 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0211 AM    3E BERTRAND               MO   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   MISSISSIPPI                    REPORTED BY MISSISSIPPI
                                          COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE