Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
142 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS THE PERIODIC CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS A RESULT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
EXPECT THE SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS EVERYWHERE TODAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES (50)
OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS. STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>6.25
C/KM) WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE SECTIONS ALSO. FEEL THAT BEST CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW WILL BE MAINLY THIS MORNING AS AXIS OF UPPER TROF AND
VORT MAX WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. AREA
SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT WITH FRONT TO THE SOUTH.

WILL REINTRODUCE POPS (RW/TRW) ON FRIDAY AS A VIGOROUS SYSTEM LIFTS
EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BACK UP TO THE MO/AR AND KY/TN BORDERS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GOOD OVERRUNNING SCENARIO THAT
DUE TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ETA/GFS/NGM SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH GFS BEING MOST AGGRESSIVE...SO WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE
ON TIMING OF THE RETURN OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY. SHOWALTER INDICES
REMAIN AT OR BELOW ZERO SO WILL EXPECT ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY.
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES BEYOND FIFTH PERIOD.

.PAH...NONE.

JAP

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-161000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
426 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
QUAD STATE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM TODAY. DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY EXCEPT MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

JAP